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Ligue 1

Referee: Antony Gautier

Guingamp

U S T S T

2–1

Full-time

Toulouse

U T U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Guingamp Toulouse

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 25%

33%

17%

Average goals

3,0

1,2

Scored

1,3

0,3

Conceded

1,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,5

This season — Ligue 1 · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 33%

34%

31%

Points per game

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

47%

41%

Both score Ø 46%

50%

41%

Average goals

2,5

2,1

Scored

1,2

1,0

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

45% Possession 55%

21 Shots 9

8 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

11 Corners 2

2 Offside 0

11 Free kicks against 19

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Guingamp 10. · Toulouse 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Monaco	31	23	5	3	+62	74
2	Paris SG	32	23	5	4	+45	74
3	Nice	33	21	10	2	+28	73
4	Lyon	32	17	3	12	+26	54
5	Bordeaux	32	13	10	9	+7	49
6	Marseille	32	13	9	10	+6	48
7	St Etienne	31	11	12	8	+10	45
8	Nantes	32	11	9	12	-15	42
9	Toulouse	32	10	11	11	+0	41
10	Guingamp	32	11	8	13	-5	41
11	Rennes	32	9	13	10	-8	40
12	Angers	33	11	6	16	-11	39
13	Lille	32	10	7	15	-8	37
14	Montpellier	32	9	9	14	-10	36
15	Metz	31	9	8	14	-30	35
16	Caen	32	9	5	18	-23	32
17	Nancy	33	8	7	18	-19	31
18	Lorient	32	9	4	19	-25	31
19	Dijon	32	6	11	15	-10	29
20	Bastia	32	6	10	16	-20	28

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Nice	17	13	4	0	+23	43
2	Monaco	15	13	1	1	+41	40
3	Paris SG	16	11	5	0	+28	38
4	Marseille	16	10	4	2	+14	34
5	Lyon	16	11	0	5	+20	33
6	Guingamp	15	9	3	3	+11	30
7	Rennes	16	8	6	2	+9	30
8	Bordeaux	17	8	5	4	+6	29
9	Toulouse	16	8	4	4	+11	28
10	St Etienne	16	7	7	2	+11	28
11	Montpellier	16	7	5	4	+9	26
12	Angers	17	7	5	5	+5	26
13	Metz	15	6	5	4	-7	23
14	Caen	16	7	2	7	-9	23
15	Nantes	16	6	4	6	-8	22
16	Dijon	16	5	5	6	+3	20
17	Nancy	16	6	2	8	-1	20
18	Lorient	16	6	2	8	-8	20
19	Bastia	16	3	9	4	+0	18
20	Lille	16	5	3	8	-4	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	16	12	0	4	+17	36
2	Monaco	16	10	4	2	+21	34
3	Nice	16	8	6	2	+5	30
4	Lyon	16	6	3	7	+6	21
5	Bordeaux	15	5	5	5	+1	20
6	Nantes	16	5	5	6	-7	20
7	Lille	16	5	4	7	-4	19
8	St Etienne	15	4	5	6	-1	17
9	Marseille	16	3	5	8	-8	14
10	Toulouse	16	2	7	7	-11	13
11	Angers	16	4	1	11	-16	13
12	Metz	16	3	3	10	-23	12
13	Guingamp	17	2	5	10	-16	11
14	Lorient	16	3	2	11	-17	11
15	Nancy	17	2	5	10	-18	11
16	Rennes	16	1	7	8	-17	10
17	Montpellier	16	2	4	10	-19	10
18	Bastia	16	3	1	12	-20	10
19	Dijon	16	1	6	9	-13	9
20	Caen	16	2	3	11	-14	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.