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Serie A
Referee: Piero Giacomelli
Roma
T S S S S
1–1
Full-time
Atalanta
U T S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Roma Atalanta
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
83%
50%
Points per game
2,5
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
83%
50%
Both score Ø 42%
50%
33%
Average goals
3,2
3,3
Scored
2,5
2,0
Conceded
0,7
1,3
Goal diff per game
+1,8
+0,7
This season — Serie A · 31/31 matches
Win Ø 66%
74%
58%
Points per game
2,3
1,9
Over 2.5 Ø 63%
68%
58%
Both score Ø 48%
48%
48%
Average goals
3,1
2,8
Scored
2,2
1,7
Conceded
0,8
1,1
Goal diff per game
+1,4
+0,6
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

69% Possession 31%
21 Shots 6
5 Shots on target 1
8 Blocked shots 1
0 Goalkeeper saves 4
11 Corners 3
1 Offside 2
8 Free kicks against 21
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Roma 2. · Atalanta 5.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Juventus 31 25 2 4 +42 77
2 Roma 31 23 2 6 +43 71
3 Napoli 31 20 7 4 +39 67
4 Lazio 31 18 6 7 +18 60
5 Atalanta 31 18 5 8 +18 59
6 Milan 32 17 7 8 +14 58
7 Inter 32 17 5 10 +22 56
8 Fiorentina 31 14 10 7 +10 52
9 Sampdoria 31 12 9 10 +2 45
10 Torino 31 11 11 9 +7 44
11 Udinese 31 11 7 13 +1 40
12 Chievo 31 11 5 15 -10 38
13 Cagliari 31 10 5 16 -21 35
14 Bologna 31 9 7 15 -17 34
15 Sassuolo 31 9 5 17 -11 32
16 Genoa 31 7 8 16 -21 29
17 Empoli 31 5 8 18 -31 23
18 Crotone 31 5 5 21 -26 20
19 Palermo 31 3 6 22 -42 15
20 Pescara 31 2 8 21 -37 14

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Roma Atalanta
22′
J. Kurtič 0–1
A. Conti
23′
🟨 Jasmin Kurtić
42′
🟨 Hans Hateboer
Half-time 0–1
Bruno Peres 🔁
↦ K. Manolas
46′
1–1 E. Džeko
Mohamed Salah
50′
54′
🔁 M. D'Alessandro
↦ B. Cristante
68′
🔁 B. Cabezas
↦ J. Kurtič
71′
🟨 Pierluigi Gollini
Mário Rui 🟨
72′
S. El Shaarawy 🔁
↦ D. De Rossi
78′
84′
🔁 A. Paloschi
↦ A. Petagna
Antonio Rüdiger 🟨
87′
F. Totti 🔁
↦ D. Perotti
87′
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Roma

4-3-3
1 W. Szczęsny G
20 F. Fazio D
44 K. Manolas D
21 Mário Rui D
2 A. Rüdiger D
16 D. De Rossi M
4 R. Nainggolan M
6 K. Strootman M
8 D. Perotti F
11 Mohamed Salah F
9 E. Džeko F
Bench (10)
13 Bruno Peres
92 S. El Shaarawy
10 F. Totti
3 Juan Jesus
5 L. Paredes
7 C. Grenier
15 T. Vermaelen
18 B. Lobonț
19 Alisson
30 Gerson

Coach: L. Spalletti

Atalanta

3-4-2-1
91 P. Gollini G
5 A. Masiello D
3 Rafael Tolói D
24 A. Conti M
33 H. Hateboer M
13 M. Caldara D
11 R. Freuler M
27 J. Kurtič M
4 B. Cristante M
19 F. Kessié M
29 A. Petagna F
Bench (11)
7 M. D'Alessandro
52 B. Cabezas
43 A. Paloschi
25 A. Konko
77 C. Raimondi
88 A. Grassi
94 F. Melegoni
95 A. Bastoni
98 C. Capone
31 F. Rossi
8 G. Migliaccio

Coach: G. Gasperini

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Piero Giacomelli · 68 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,4 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
20,1 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,21 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.