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Bundesliga

Referee: Tobias Stieler

RB Leipzig

S S U U S

4–5

Full-time

Bayern Munich

S U U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

RB Leipzig Bayern Munich

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,3

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,8

Scored

2,2

Conceded

0,7

Goal diff per game

+1,5

This season — Bundesliga · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 68%

63%

72%

Points per game

2,1

2,4

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

63%

56%

Both score Ø 46%

50%

41%

Average goals

2,9

3,0

Scored

1,9

2,5

Conceded

1,0

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,9

+2,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

39% Possession 61%

11 Shots 20

6 Shots on target 9

2 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

2 Corners 6

3 Offside 3

19 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match RB Leipzig 2. · Bayern Munich 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	32	23	7	2	+63	76
2	RB Leipzig	32	20	6	6	+28	66
3	Dortmund	32	17	9	6	+31	60
4	Hoffenheim	32	15	13	4	+25	58
5	Freiburg	32	14	5	13	-15	47
6	Hertha	32	14	4	14	-2	46
7	FC Koln	32	11	12	9	+7	45
8	Werder Bremen	32	13	6	13	+0	45
9	M'gladbach	32	12	7	13	-4	43
10	Schalke 04	32	11	8	13	+5	41
11	Ein Frankfurt	32	11	8	13	-5	41
12	Leverkusen	32	10	7	15	-6	37
13	Augsburg	32	9	9	14	-16	36
14	Wolfsburg	32	10	6	16	-17	36
15	Mainz	32	9	7	16	-11	34
16	Hamburg	32	9	7	16	-29	34
17	FC Ingolstadt 04	32	8	6	18	-21	30
18	Darmstadt	32	7	3	22	-33	24

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	16	12	4	0	+43	40
2	Dortmund	16	12	4	0	+28	40
3	Hoffenheim	16	11	5	0	+21	38
4	RB Leipzig	16	12	2	2	+20	38
5	Hertha	16	12	1	3	+13	37
6	Freiburg	16	10	1	5	-1	31
7	FC Koln	16	8	6	2	+10	30
8	Schalke 04	16	8	4	4	+14	28
9	Ein Frankfurt	16	7	6	3	+6	27
10	M'gladbach	16	7	4	5	+8	25
11	Werder Bremen	16	8	1	7	+6	25
12	Hamburg	16	7	4	5	-5	25
13	Mainz	16	6	4	6	+2	22
14	Darmstadt	16	6	3	7	-5	21
15	Leverkusen	16	5	5	6	-1	20
16	Augsburg	16	5	5	6	-3	20
17	Wolfsburg	16	5	2	9	-10	17
18	FC Ingolstadt 04	16	4	4	8	-9	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	16	11	3	2	+20	36
2	RB Leipzig	16	8	4	4	+8	28
3	Hoffenheim	16	4	8	4	+4	20
4	Dortmund	16	5	5	6	+3	20
5	Werder Bremen	16	5	5	6	-6	20
6	Wolfsburg	16	5	4	7	-7	19
7	M'gladbach	16	5	3	8	-12	18
8	Leverkusen	16	5	2	9	-5	17
9	Augsburg	16	4	4	8	-13	16
10	Freiburg	16	4	4	8	-14	16
11	FC Koln	16	3	6	7	-3	15
12	Ein Frankfurt	16	4	2	10	-11	14
13	FC Ingolstadt 04	16	4	2	10	-12	14
14	Schalke 04	16	3	4	9	-9	13
15	Mainz	16	3	3	10	-13	12
16	Hertha	16	2	3	11	-15	9
17	Hamburg	16	2	3	11	-24	9
18	Darmstadt	16	1	0	15	-28	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.