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Premier League
Referee: Roger East
Liverpool
S U S S T
1–1
Full-time
Burnley
T S T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Liverpool Burnley
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
67%
33%
Points per game
2,2
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
83%
50%
Both score Ø 42%
17%
67%
Average goals
3,8
2,5
Scored
2,5
1,2
Conceded
1,3
1,3
Goal diff per game
+1,2
-0,2
This season — Premier League · 4/4 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,8
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
75%
25%
Both score Ø 38%
25%
50%
Average goals
4,0
2,3
Scored
2,0
1,3
Conceded
2,0
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+0,3
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

71% Possession 29%
35 Shots 5
9 Shots on target 4
12 Blocked shots 0
2 Goalkeeper saves 8
12 Corners 2
1 Offside 5
7 Free kicks against 9
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Liverpool 9. · Burnley 8.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Man United 4 3 1 0 +10 10
2 Man City 4 3 1 0 +8 10
3 Chelsea 4 3 0 1 +3 9
4 Watford 4 2 2 0 +4 8
5 Southampton 5 2 2 1 +0 8
6 Tottenham 4 2 1 1 +4 7
7 Huddersfield 4 2 1 1 +2 7
8 Burnley 4 2 1 1 +1 7
9 Liverpool 4 2 1 1 +0 7
10 West Brom 4 2 1 1 +0 7
11 Newcastle 4 2 0 2 +1 6
12 Arsenal 4 2 0 2 -1 6
13 Stoke 4 1 2 1 +0 5
14 Brighton 5 1 1 3 -3 4
15 Swansea 4 1 1 2 -3 4
16 Everton 4 1 1 2 -4 4
17 Leicester 4 1 0 3 -2 3
18 West Ham 4 1 0 3 -6 3
19 Bournemouth 5 1 0 4 -6 3
20 Crystal Palace 5 0 0 5 -8 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Liverpool Burnley
27′
S. Arfield 0–1
1–1 Mohamed Salah
E. Can
30′
Half-time 1–1
55′
🟨 Nick Pope
60′
🔁 A. Barnes
↦ J. Guðmunds­son
D. Solanke 🔁
↦ Philippe Coutinho
78′
A. Oxlade-Chamberlain 🔁
↦ Roberto Firmino
79′
87′
🔁 A. Westwood
↦ S. Defour
87′
🔁 S. Vokes
↦ C. Wood
Emre Can 🟨
90′
90′
🟨 Jack Cork
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Liverpool

4-3-3
22 S. Mignolet G
17 R. Klavan D
32 J. Matip D
26 A. Robertson D
66 T. Alexander-Arnold D
7 J. Milner M
10 Philippe Coutinho M
23 E. Can M
15 D. Sturridge F
9 Roberto Firmino F
11 Mohamed Salah F
Bench (7)
29 D. Solanke
21 A. Oxlade-Chamberlain
1 L. Karius
5 G. Wijnaldum
6 D. Lovren
14 J. Henderson
18 Alberto Moreno

Coach: J. Klopp

Burnley

4-4-1-1
29 N. Pope G
23 S. Ward D
2 M. Lowton D
6 B. Mee D
5 J. Tarkowski D
16 S. Defour M
37 S. Arfield F
4 J. Cork M
17 J. Guðmunds­son M
12 R. Brady M
11 C. Wood F
Bench (7)
10 A. Barnes
18 A. Westwood
9 S. Vokes
19 J. Walters
26 P. Bardsley
28 K. Long
30 A. Legzdins

Coach: S. Dyche

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Roger East · 87 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,7 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
16,7 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,08 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.