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Bundesliga

Referee: Marco Fritz

Bayern Munich

S S S S S

5–1

Full-time

Dortmund

S S S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bayern Munich Dortmund

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 84%

100%

67%

Points per game

3,0

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 92%

100%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,5

3,8

Scored

3,0

2,8

Conceded

0,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

+2,5

+1,8

This season — Bundesliga · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 86%

100%

71%

Points per game

3,0

2,4

Over 2.5 Ø 93%

100%

86%

Both score Ø 50%

43%

57%

Average goals

3,7

3,9

Scored

3,3

3,0

Conceded

0,4

0,9

Goal diff per game

+2,9

+2,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

57% Possession 43%

15 Shots 10

9 Shots on target 4

0 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 4

1 Offside 2

0 Free kicks against 0

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bayern Munich 1. · Dortmund 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	7	7	0	0	+20	21
2	Dortmund	7	5	2	0	+15	17
3	Schalke 04	8	5	1	2	+2	16
4	Hertha	8	4	2	2	+3	14
5	FC Koln	8	4	2	2	+1	14
6	FC Ingolstadt 04	8	4	2	2	+0	14
7	Mainz	8	4	0	4	+1	12
8	Wolfsburg	8	3	3	2	+0	12
9	Leverkusen	7	4	0	3	-1	12
10	Darmstadt	8	2	4	2	-2	10
11	Hamburg	8	3	1	4	-5	10
12	Ein Frankfurt	8	2	3	3	+2	9
13	M'gladbach	8	3	0	5	-4	9
14	Werder Bremen	8	2	1	5	-6	7
15	Hoffenheim	8	1	3	4	-4	6
16	Hannover	8	1	2	5	-9	5
17	Augsburg	7	1	1	5	-5	4
18	Stuttgart	8	1	1	6	-8	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	4	4	0	0	+13	12
2	Dortmund	4	3	1	0	+9	10
3	Wolfsburg	4	3	1	0	+6	10
4	Hertha	4	3	1	0	+6	10
5	FC Koln	4	2	2	0	+2	8
6	Schalke 04	4	2	1	1	+0	7
7	Mainz	4	2	0	2	+1	6
8	Leverkusen	3	2	0	1	+1	6
9	M'gladbach	4	2	0	2	+0	6
10	Ein Frankfurt	3	1	2	0	+4	5
11	Darmstadt	5	1	2	2	-3	5
12	Hamburg	3	1	1	1	+0	4
13	FC Ingolstadt 04	4	1	1	2	-3	4
14	Augsburg	4	1	0	3	-2	3
15	Hannover	4	1	0	3	-4	3
16	Werder Bremen	4	1	0	3	-6	3
17	Hoffenheim	4	0	2	2	-3	2
18	Stuttgart	4	0	0	4	-8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	FC Ingolstadt 04	4	3	1	0	+3	10
2	Bayern Munich	3	3	0	0	+7	9
3	Schalke 04	4	3	0	1	+2	9
4	Dortmund	3	2	1	0	+6	7
5	Mainz	4	2	0	2	+0	6
6	FC Koln	4	2	0	2	-1	6
7	Leverkusen	4	2	0	2	-2	6
8	Hamburg	5	2	0	3	-5	6
9	Darmstadt	3	1	2	0	+1	5
10	Stuttgart	4	1	1	2	+0	4
11	Werder Bremen	4	1	1	2	+0	4
12	Hoffenheim	4	1	1	2	-1	4
13	Ein Frankfurt	5	1	1	3	-2	4
14	Hertha	4	1	1	2	-3	4
15	M'gladbach	4	1	0	3	-4	3
16	Hannover	4	0	2	2	-5	2
17	Wolfsburg	4	0	2	2	-6	2
18	Augsburg	3	0	1	2	-3	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.