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Bundesliga

Referee: Patrick Ittrich

Mainz

U S T S T

4–2

Full-time

Freiburg

S T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz Freiburg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,8

3,0

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,3

This season — Bundesliga · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 45%

40%

50%

Points per game

1,4

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 80%

80%

Both score Ø 65%

70%

60%

Average goals

3,5

2,9

Scored

1,7

1,3

Conceded

1,8

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,1

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

35% Possession 65%

11 Shots 24

6 Shots on target 11

1 Blocked shots 7

9 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 5

4 Offside 0

21 Free kicks against 21

4 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Mainz 10. · Freiburg 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	RB Leipzig	11	8	3	0	+14	27
2	Bayern Munich	10	7	3	0	+18	24
3	Hoffenheim	10	5	5	0	+7	20
4	Hertha	10	6	2	2	+7	20
5	Dortmund	10	5	3	2	+13	18
6	FC Koln	10	5	3	2	+9	18
7	Ein Frankfurt	10	5	3	2	+6	18
8	Leverkusen	11	5	1	5	+0	16
9	Freiburg	10	5	0	5	-3	15
10	Mainz	10	4	2	4	-1	14
11	M'gladbach	10	3	3	4	-5	12
12	Schalke 04	10	3	2	5	+1	11
13	Augsburg	10	3	2	5	-4	11
14	Wolfsburg	10	2	3	5	-4	9
15	Darmstadt	10	2	2	6	-10	8
16	Werder Bremen	10	2	1	7	-15	7
17	FC Ingolstadt 04	10	0	2	8	-14	2
18	Hamburg	10	0	2	8	-19	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Hertha	5	5	0	0	+9	15
2	Bayern Munich	6	4	2	0	+13	14
3	FC Koln	5	4	1	0	+9	13
4	RB Leipzig	5	4	1	0	+6	13
5	Freiburg	5	4	0	1	+2	12
6	Dortmund	5	3	2	0	+9	11
7	M'gladbach	5	3	2	0	+6	11
8	Ein Frankfurt	5	3	2	0	+3	11
9	Hoffenheim	5	3	2	0	+3	11
10	Leverkusen	6	3	1	2	+1	10
11	Schalke 04	5	3	0	2	+5	9
12	Darmstadt	5	2	2	1	+1	8
13	Mainz	4	2	1	1	+2	7
14	Werder Bremen	5	2	0	3	-2	6
15	Augsburg	5	1	1	3	-5	4
16	Wolfsburg	5	0	2	3	-6	2
17	FC Ingolstadt 04	5	0	1	4	-7	1
18	Hamburg	5	0	1	4	-11	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	RB Leipzig	6	4	2	0	+8	14
2	Bayern Munich	4	3	1	0	+5	10
3	Hoffenheim	5	2	3	0	+4	9
4	Dortmund	5	2	1	2	+4	7
5	Ein Frankfurt	5	2	1	2	+3	7
6	Wolfsburg	5	2	1	2	+2	7
7	Augsburg	5	2	1	2	+1	7
8	Mainz	6	2	1	3	-3	7
9	Leverkusen	5	2	0	3	-1	6
10	FC Koln	5	1	2	2	+0	5
11	Hertha	5	1	2	2	-2	5
12	Freiburg	5	1	0	4	-5	3
13	Schalke 04	5	0	2	3	-4	2
14	FC Ingolstadt 04	5	0	1	4	-7	1
15	Hamburg	5	0	1	4	-8	1
16	M'gladbach	5	0	1	4	-11	1
17	Werder Bremen	5	0	1	4	-13	1
18	Darmstadt	5	0	0	5	-11	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.