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Bundesliga

Referee: Sascha Stegemann

Hamburg

T T U T T

2–5

Full-time

Dortmund

S T U U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hamburg Dortmund

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 34%

67%

Average goals

1,7

3,3

Scored

0,0

2,0

Conceded

1,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,7

+0,7

This season — Bundesliga · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 22%

44%

Points per game

0,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

44%

56%

Both score Ø 39%

22%

56%

Average goals

2,2

3,3

Scored

0,2

2,2

Conceded

2,0

1,1

Goal diff per game

-1,8

+1,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–3

42% Possession 58%

14 Shots 10

6 Shots on target 6

1 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 3

4 Offside 4

13 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Hamburg 18. · Dortmund 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	9	7	2	0	+18	23
2	RB Leipzig	9	6	3	0	+11	21
3	Hertha	10	6	2	2	+7	20
4	Hoffenheim	9	5	4	0	+7	19
5	FC Koln	9	5	3	1	+10	18
6	Dortmund	9	4	3	2	+10	15
7	Ein Frankfurt	9	4	3	2	+5	15
8	Freiburg	9	5	0	4	+0	15
9	Mainz	9	4	2	3	+1	14
10	Leverkusen	9	4	1	4	+0	13
11	M'gladbach	10	3	3	4	-5	12
12	Schalke 04	9	2	2	5	-1	8
13	Augsburg	9	2	2	5	-6	8
14	Darmstadt	9	2	2	5	-9	8
15	Werder Bremen	9	2	1	6	-13	7
16	Wolfsburg	9	1	3	5	-7	6
17	FC Ingolstadt 04	9	0	2	7	-12	2
18	Hamburg	9	0	2	7	-16	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Hertha	5	5	0	0	+9	15
2	Bayern Munich	5	4	1	0	+13	13
3	FC Koln	5	4	1	0	+9	13
4	Freiburg	4	4	0	0	+5	12
5	Dortmund	5	3	2	0	+9	11
6	M'gladbach	5	3	2	0	+6	11
7	Hoffenheim	5	3	2	0	+3	11
8	RB Leipzig	4	3	1	0	+4	10
9	Ein Frankfurt	4	2	2	0	+2	8
10	Darmstadt	5	2	2	1	+1	8
11	Mainz	4	2	1	1	+2	7
12	Leverkusen	4	2	1	1	+1	7
13	Schalke 04	4	2	0	2	+3	6
14	Werder Bremen	5	2	0	3	-2	6
15	Augsburg	5	1	1	3	-5	4
16	Wolfsburg	5	0	2	3	-6	2
17	FC Ingolstadt 04	4	0	1	3	-5	1
18	Hamburg	4	0	1	3	-8	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	RB Leipzig	5	3	2	0	+7	11
2	Bayern Munich	4	3	1	0	+5	10
3	Hoffenheim	4	2	2	0	+4	8
4	Ein Frankfurt	5	2	1	2	+3	7
5	Mainz	5	2	1	2	-1	7
6	Leverkusen	5	2	0	3	-1	6
7	FC Koln	4	1	2	1	+1	5
8	Hertha	5	1	2	2	-2	5
9	Dortmund	4	1	1	2	+1	4
10	Wolfsburg	4	1	1	2	-1	4
11	Augsburg	4	1	1	2	-1	4
12	Freiburg	5	1	0	4	-5	3
13	Schalke 04	5	0	2	3	-4	2
14	FC Ingolstadt 04	5	0	1	4	-7	1
15	Hamburg	5	0	1	4	-8	1
16	Werder Bremen	4	0	1	3	-11	1
17	M'gladbach	5	0	1	4	-11	1
18	Darmstadt	4	0	0	4	-10	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.