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Premier League

Referee: Neil Swarbrick

Watford

U S U S T

2–1

Full-time

Leicester

U T S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Watford Leicester

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,5

2,8

Scored

0,8

1,0

Conceded

1,7

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,8

This season — Premier League · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 32%

36%

27%

Points per game

1,4

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

55%

73%

Both score Ø 64%

64%

Average goals

3,1

2,8

Scored

1,4

1,2

Conceded

1,7

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

45% Possession 55%

10 Shots 11

3 Shots on target 2

0 Blocked shots 6

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 6

1 Offside 0

12 Free kicks against 18

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Watford 8. · Leicester 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	11	8	2	1	+16	26
2	Chelsea	11	8	1	2	+17	25
3	Arsenal	12	7	4	1	+13	25
4	Man City	11	7	3	1	+15	24
5	Tottenham	11	5	6	0	+9	21
6	Man United	12	5	4	3	+3	19
7	Everton	11	5	3	3	+2	18
8	Watford	11	4	3	4	-4	15
9	Burnley	11	4	2	5	-4	14
10	Southampton	11	3	4	4	+0	13
11	West Brom	11	3	4	4	-3	13
12	Stoke	11	3	4	4	-5	13
13	Bournemouth	11	3	3	5	-3	12
14	Leicester	11	3	3	5	-5	12
15	Middlesbrough	11	2	5	4	-2	11
16	Crystal Palace	11	3	2	6	-3	11
17	West Ham	11	3	2	6	-9	11
18	Hull	11	3	1	7	-14	10
19	Swansea	11	1	2	8	-11	5
20	Sunderland	11	1	2	8	-12	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	6	5	0	1	+15	15
2	Liverpool	5	4	1	0	+13	13
3	Burnley	7	4	1	2	+4	13
4	Man City	6	3	3	0	+7	12
5	Leicester	6	3	2	1	+5	11
6	Everton	5	3	2	0	+5	11
7	Arsenal	6	3	2	1	+4	11
8	Tottenham	5	3	2	0	+4	11
9	Bournemouth	6	3	1	2	+4	10
10	Man United	6	2	3	1	+4	9
11	Southampton	5	2	2	1	+1	8
12	West Ham	6	2	2	2	-3	8
13	Watford	5	2	1	2	+0	7
14	Stoke	5	2	1	2	-3	7
15	Hull	6	2	0	4	-6	6
16	West Brom	5	1	2	2	-3	5
17	Crystal Palace	5	1	1	3	-1	4
18	Middlesbrough	5	1	1	3	-1	4
19	Swansea	6	0	2	4	-7	2
20	Sunderland	5	0	1	4	-8	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arsenal	6	4	2	0	+9	14
2	Liverpool	6	4	1	1	+3	13
3	Man City	5	4	0	1	+8	12
4	Tottenham	6	2	4	0	+5	10
5	Chelsea	5	3	1	1	+2	10
6	Man United	6	3	1	2	-1	10
7	West Brom	6	2	2	2	+0	8
8	Watford	6	2	2	2	-4	8
9	Middlesbrough	6	1	4	1	-1	7
10	Crystal Palace	6	2	1	3	-2	7
11	Everton	6	2	1	3	-3	7
12	Stoke	6	1	3	2	-2	6
13	Southampton	6	1	2	3	-1	5
14	Sunderland	6	1	1	4	-4	4
15	Hull	5	1	1	3	-8	4
16	Swansea	5	1	0	4	-4	3
17	West Ham	5	1	0	4	-6	3
18	Bournemouth	5	0	2	3	-7	2
19	Burnley	4	0	1	3	-8	1
20	Leicester	5	0	1	4	-10	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.