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Bundesliga

Referee: Felix Zwayer

Hamburg

T U S T U

3–1

Full-time

Dortmund

T S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hamburg Dortmund

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,8

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

1,7

4,5

Scored

0,5

2,7

Conceded

1,2

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,8

This season — Bundesliga · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 54%

33%

75%

Points per game

1,3

2,4

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,3

4,2

Scored

0,9

2,9

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+1,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

31% Possession 69%

7 Shots 21

2 Shots on target 7

3 Blocked shots 4

6 Goalkeeper saves 1

2 Corners 7

3 Offside 3

0 Free kicks against 0

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Hamburg 11. · Dortmund 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	12	11	1	0	+33	34
2	Dortmund	12	9	2	1	+20	29
3	Wolfsburg	12	6	3	3	+2	21
4	Hertha	12	6	2	4	+2	20
5	Schalke 04	12	6	2	4	+0	20
6	M'gladbach	12	6	1	5	+5	19
7	FC Koln	12	5	3	4	-3	18
8	Leverkusen	12	5	2	5	-2	17
9	Mainz	12	5	1	6	-1	16
10	FC Ingolstadt 04	12	4	4	4	-2	16
11	Hamburg	12	4	3	5	-5	15
12	Ein Frankfurt	12	3	5	4	-1	14
13	Darmstadt	12	3	5	4	-3	14
14	Werder Bremen	12	4	1	7	-6	13
15	Hannover	12	3	2	7	-10	11
16	Stuttgart	12	3	1	8	-10	10
17	Hoffenheim	12	1	5	6	-7	8
18	Augsburg	12	1	3	8	-12	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	7	7	0	0	+25	21
2	Dortmund	6	5	1	0	+14	16
3	Wolfsburg	6	5	1	0	+9	16
4	Schalke 04	6	3	2	1	+1	11
5	Hertha	5	3	1	1	+3	10
6	M'gladbach	6	3	1	2	+2	10
7	Leverkusen	6	3	1	2	+1	10
8	FC Koln	6	2	3	1	+1	9
9	Mainz	7	3	0	4	-1	9
10	Ein Frankfurt	5	1	3	1	+0	6
11	Darmstadt	7	1	3	3	-4	6
12	Stuttgart	6	2	0	4	-5	6
13	Hamburg	5	1	2	2	-1	5
14	FC Ingolstadt 04	5	1	1	3	-4	4
15	Augsburg	7	1	1	5	-5	4
16	Hoffenheim	6	0	3	3	-4	3
17	Hannover	6	1	0	5	-7	3
18	Werder Bremen	6	1	0	5	-9	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	5	4	1	0	+8	13
2	Dortmund	6	4	1	1	+6	13
3	FC Ingolstadt 04	7	3	3	1	+2	12
4	Werder Bremen	6	3	1	2	+3	10
5	Hertha	7	3	1	3	-1	10
6	Hamburg	7	3	1	3	-4	10
7	M'gladbach	6	3	0	3	+3	9
8	Schalke 04	6	3	0	3	-1	9
9	FC Koln	6	3	0	3	-4	9
10	Darmstadt	5	2	2	1	+1	8
11	Ein Frankfurt	7	2	2	3	-1	8
12	Hannover	6	2	2	2	-3	8
13	Mainz	5	2	1	2	+0	7
14	Leverkusen	6	2	1	3	-3	7
15	Hoffenheim	6	1	2	3	-3	5
16	Wolfsburg	6	1	2	3	-7	5
17	Stuttgart	6	1	1	4	-5	4
18	Augsburg	5	0	2	3	-7	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.