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Bundesliga
Referee: Florian Meyer
Bayern Munich
S S
3–0
Full-time
Leverkusen
S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bayern Munich Leverkusen
Last 6 — all competitions · 2/2 matches
Win Ø 100%
100%
100%
Points per game
3,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
100%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
4,0
2,0
Scored
3,5
1,5
Conceded
0,5
0,5
Goal diff per game
+3,0
+1,0
This season — Bundesliga · 2/2 matches
Win Ø 100%
100%
100%
Points per game
3,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
100%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
4,0
2,0
Scored
3,5
1,5
Conceded
0,5
0,5
Goal diff per game
+3,0
+1,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

65% Possession 35%
14 Shots 10
6 Shots on target 4
1 Blocked shots 2
3 Goalkeeper saves 3
7 Corners 5
1 Offside 3
0 Free kicks against 0
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Bayern Munich 4. · Leverkusen 6. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Wolfsburg 3 2 1 0 +4 7
2 FC Koln 3 2 1 0 +3 7
3 Dortmund 2 2 0 0 +8 6
4 Bayern Munich 2 2 0 0 +6 6
5 Mainz 3 2 0 1 +3 6
6 Leverkusen 2 2 0 0 +2 6
7 FC Ingolstadt 04 3 2 0 1 -2 6
8 Ein Frankfurt 3 1 1 1 +2 4
9 Hertha 2 1 1 0 +1 4
10 Schalke 04 3 1 1 1 +0 4
11 Darmstadt 3 0 3 0 +0 3
12 Hamburg 3 1 0 2 -5 3
13 Hoffenheim 3 0 1 2 -2 1
14 Augsburg 3 0 1 2 -2 1
15 Werder Bremen 2 0 1 1 -3 1
16 Hannover 3 0 1 2 -4 1
17 M'gladbach 2 0 0 2 -5 0
18 Stuttgart 3 0 0 3 -6 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Bayern Munich Leverkusen
6′
🟨 Wendell
Juan Bernat 🟨
8′
19′
🟨 Christoph Kramer
Thiago Alcántara 🟨
20′
1–0 T. Müller ⚽
Douglas Costa
26′
Half-time 1–0
46′
🔁 J. Brandt
↦ A. Mehmedi
2–0 T. Müller ⚽
60′
61′
🔁 R. Kruse
↦ H. Çalhanoğlu
3–0 A. Robben ⚽
71′
72′
🟨 Robbie Kruse
Dante 🔁
↦ Juan Bernat
73′
M. Götze 🔁
↦ A. Robben
78′
78′
🔁 S. Boenisch
↦ Wendell
S. Rode 🔁
↦ Thiago Alcântara
83′
Full-time 3–0

Line-ups

Bayern Munich

1 M. Neuer G
21 P. Lahm D
27 D. Alaba D
10 A. Robben M
14 Xabi Alonso M
23 A. Vidal M
11 Douglas Costa M
6 Thiago Alcântara M
18 Juan Bernat D
25 T. Müller M
9 R. Lewandowski F
Bench (7)
4 Dante
19 M. Götze
20 S. Rode
26 S. Ulreich
39 P. Steinhart
32 J. Kimmich
13 Rafinha

Leverkusen

1 B. Leno G
13 R. Hilbert D
5 K. Papadopoulos D
18 Wendell D
4 J. Tah D
8 L. Bender M
38 K. Bellarabi M
23 C. Kramer M
11 S. Kießling F
14 A. Mehmedi M
10 H. Çalhanoğlu F
Bench (7)
19 J. Brandt
27 R. Kruse
17 S. Boenisch
26 G. Donati
2 André Ramalho
24 Seung-Woo Ryu
25 D. Kresic

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Florian Meyer · 15 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,0 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
2,4 / match
Below average

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.