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Championship

Referee: Tim Robinson

Reading

S U S S T

1–1

Full-time

Derby

T T U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Reading Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,2

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,2

1,8

Scored

1,2

0,7

Conceded

1,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,5

This season — Championship · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 35%

50%

20%

Points per game

1,7

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 30%

50%

10%

Both score Ø 35%

50%

20%

Average goals

2,5

1,4

Scored

1,1

0,5

Conceded

1,4

0,9

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

62% Possession 38%

11 Shots 11

4 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 5

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 5

12 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Reading 9. · Derby 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Huddersfield	10	7	1	2	+5	22
2	Norwich	10	6	2	2	+5	20
3	Newcastle	10	6	1	3	+11	19
4	Brighton	10	5	3	2	+6	18
5	Brentford	10	5	2	3	+9	17
6	Bristol City	10	5	2	3	+6	17
7	Birmingham	10	4	5	1	+4	17
8	Sheffield Weds	10	5	2	3	+0	17
9	Reading	10	5	2	3	-3	17
10	Barnsley	10	5	1	4	+6	16
11	Wolves	10	4	3	3	+2	15
12	QPR	11	4	3	4	-3	15
13	Fulham	11	3	5	3	-3	14
14	Ipswich	10	3	4	3	+0	13
15	Leeds	10	4	1	5	-2	13
16	Nott'm Forest	10	3	3	4	-2	12
17	Aston Villa	10	1	7	2	+0	10
18	Burton Albion	10	2	4	4	-2	10
19	Preston	10	3	1	6	-4	10
20	Derby	10	2	3	5	-4	9
21	Wigan	10	2	2	6	-2	8
22	Blackburn	10	2	2	6	-7	8
23	Cardiff	10	2	2	6	-9	8
24	Rotherham	10	1	3	6	-13	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Huddersfield	5	5	0	0	+5	15
2	Brentford	5	4	1	0	+11	13
3	Norwich	5	4	1	0	+5	13
4	Brighton	5	4	0	1	+7	12
5	Sheffield Weds	5	4	0	1	+2	12
6	Reading	5	3	2	0	+3	11
7	Barnsley	5	3	1	1	+6	10
8	Nott'm Forest	5	3	1	1	+3	10
9	Bristol City	5	3	1	1	+3	10
10	Newcastle	5	3	0	2	+3	9
11	Ipswich	5	2	3	0	+3	9
12	Wigan	5	2	2	1	+3	8
13	Birmingham	5	2	2	1	+2	8
14	Wolves	5	2	2	1	+0	8
15	Aston Villa	5	1	4	0	+3	7
16	Burton Albion	5	2	1	2	+1	7
17	Leeds	5	2	1	2	+0	7
18	Preston	5	2	0	3	+1	6
19	Rotherham	5	1	3	1	+0	6
20	Fulham	6	1	2	3	-5	5
21	QPR	5	1	2	2	-5	5
22	Blackburn	5	1	1	3	-3	4
23	Cardiff	5	1	0	4	-6	3
24	Derby	5	0	2	3	-4	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Newcastle	5	3	1	1	+8	10
2	QPR	6	3	1	2	+2	10
3	Birmingham	5	2	3	0	+2	9
4	Fulham	5	2	3	0	+2	9
5	Bristol City	5	2	1	2	+3	7
6	Wolves	5	2	1	2	+2	7
7	Norwich	5	2	1	2	+0	7
8	Huddersfield	5	2	1	2	+0	7
9	Derby	5	2	1	2	+0	7
10	Barnsley	5	2	0	3	+0	6
11	Brighton	5	1	3	1	-1	6
12	Leeds	5	2	0	3	-2	6
13	Reading	5	2	0	3	-6	6
14	Sheffield Weds	5	1	2	2	-2	5
15	Cardiff	5	1	2	2	-3	5
16	Brentford	5	1	1	3	-2	4
17	Ipswich	5	1	1	3	-3	4
18	Blackburn	5	1	1	3	-4	4
19	Preston	5	1	1	3	-5	4
20	Burton Albion	5	0	3	2	-3	3
21	Aston Villa	5	0	3	2	-3	3
22	Nott'm Forest	5	0	2	3	-5	2
23	Wigan	5	0	0	5	-5	0
24	Rotherham	5	0	0	5	-13	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.