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Championship

Referee: Keith Stroud

Derby

U U S U T

2–2

Full-time

Leeds

T U T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Leeds

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,5

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

17%

67%

Average goals

1,7

3,3

Scored

1,2

Conceded

0,5

2,2

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-1,0

This season — Championship · 31/32 matches

Win Ø 47%

52%

41%

Points per game

1,8

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

42%

53%

Both score Ø 43%

39%

47%

Average goals

2,3

2,7

Scored

1,5

1,4

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

57% Possession 43%

25 Shots 8

4 Shots on target 3

6 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

10 Corners 2

1 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 9

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 3. · Leeds 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	32	22	6	4	+33	72
2	Cardiff	32	18	7	7	+21	61
3	Derby	31	16	9	6	+22	57
4	Fulham	30	15	9	6	+19	54
5	Aston Villa	30	15	8	7	+17	53
6	Bristol City	32	14	11	7	+9	53
7	Sheffield United	32	16	4	12	+8	52
8	Preston	33	12	15	6	+8	51
9	Middlesbrough	31	15	5	11	+13	50
10	Brentford	33	13	11	9	+10	50
11	Millwall	33	11	12	10	+4	45
12	Leeds	32	13	6	13	+3	45
13	Ipswich	32	13	6	13	+2	45
14	Norwich	32	12	9	11	-3	45
15	QPR	33	10	9	14	-10	39
16	Sheffield Weds	33	8	13	12	-5	37
17	Nott'm Forest	33	11	4	18	-15	37
18	Reading	32	8	9	15	-7	33
19	Bolton	33	8	9	16	-22	33
20	Birmingham	33	8	6	19	-27	30
21	Hull	32	6	11	15	-7	29
22	Burton Albion	33	7	8	18	-33	29
23	Barnsley	32	6	10	16	-16	28
24	Sunderland	33	5	11	17	-24	26

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	16	12	2	2	+20	38
2	Cardiff	16	11	3	2	+19	36
3	Aston Villa	15	9	5	1	+16	32
4	Sheffield United	17	10	2	5	+11	32
5	Derby	16	9	4	3	+16	31
6	Millwall	17	8	6	3	+9	30
7	Middlesbrough	16	9	3	4	+8	30
8	Fulham	15	8	5	2	+14	29
9	Brentford	17	7	8	2	+13	29
10	Bristol City	16	8	4	4	+8	28
11	QPR	16	8	4	4	+3	28
12	Ipswich	16	8	3	5	+9	27
13	Preston	16	6	7	3	+4	25
14	Bolton	17	7	4	6	-1	25
15	Leeds	16	6	5	5	+4	23
16	Nott'm Forest	17	7	1	9	-6	22
17	Sheffield Weds	16	5	6	5	+0	21
18	Norwich	16	5	6	5	+0	21
19	Birmingham	16	6	2	8	-7	20
20	Hull	15	4	6	5	+7	18
21	Barnsley	17	3	6	8	-8	15
22	Reading	15	3	4	8	-6	13
23	Sunderland	16	2	5	9	-11	11
24	Burton Albion	16	2	3	11	-20	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	16	10	4	2	+13	34
2	Derby	15	7	5	3	+6	26
3	Preston	17	6	8	3	+4	26
4	Fulham	15	7	4	4	+5	25
5	Cardiff	16	7	4	5	+2	25
6	Bristol City	16	6	7	3	+1	25
7	Norwich	16	7	3	6	-3	24
8	Leeds	16	7	1	8	-1	22
9	Aston Villa	15	6	3	6	+1	21
10	Brentford	16	6	3	7	-3	21
11	Middlesbrough	15	6	2	7	+5	20
12	Reading	17	5	5	7	-1	20
13	Sheffield United	15	6	2	7	-3	20
14	Burton Albion	17	5	5	7	-13	20
15	Ipswich	16	5	3	8	-7	18
16	Sheffield Weds	17	3	7	7	-5	16
17	Millwall	16	3	6	7	-5	15
18	Nott'm Forest	16	4	3	9	-9	15
19	Sunderland	17	3	6	8	-13	15
20	Barnsley	15	3	4	8	-8	13
21	QPR	17	2	5	10	-13	11
22	Hull	17	2	5	10	-14	11
23	Birmingham	17	2	4	11	-20	10
24	Bolton	16	1	5	10	-21	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.