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Championship

Referee: Tony Harrington

Newcastle

S S S S S

2–1

Full-time

Cardiff

T S U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Newcastle Cardiff

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

100%

33%

Points per game

3,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,3

2,2

Scored

2,5

0,8

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,7

-0,5

This season — Championship · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 50%

73%

27%

Points per game

2,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

47%

Both score Ø 44%

40%

47%

Average goals

2,9

2,4

Scored

2,1

0,9

Conceded

0,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

66% Possession 34%

18 Shots 10

4 Shots on target 2

6 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

10 Corners 4

1 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 7

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Newcastle 1. · Cardiff 21. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Newcastle	15	11	1	3	+20	34
2	Brighton	15	9	4	2	+14	31
3	Huddersfield	14	9	1	4	+0	28
4	Norwich	15	8	3	4	+2	27
5	Reading	15	7	4	4	-1	25
6	Bristol City	15	7	3	5	+6	24
7	Fulham	16	6	6	4	+5	24
8	Birmingham	15	6	6	3	+3	24
9	Leeds	15	7	2	6	+1	23
10	Brentford	16	6	4	6	+5	22
11	Sheffield Weds	14	6	3	5	-2	21
12	Barnsley	15	6	2	7	+3	20
13	Preston	15	6	2	7	+0	20
14	Derby	16	5	5	6	-1	20
15	QPR	15	5	4	6	-5	19
16	Aston Villa	15	3	9	3	+0	18
17	Ipswich	15	4	6	5	-2	18
18	Wolves	16	4	5	7	-2	17
19	Burton Albion	15	4	5	6	-2	17
20	Nott'm Forest	15	4	3	8	-5	15
21	Cardiff	15	4	3	8	-10	15
22	Wigan	15	3	5	7	-2	14
23	Blackburn	15	3	4	8	-8	13
24	Rotherham	15	1	4	10	-19	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	8	6	1	1	+13	19
2	Huddersfield	6	6	0	0	+6	18
3	Norwich	7	5	1	1	+6	16
4	Bristol City	7	5	1	1	+5	16
5	Newcastle	7	5	0	2	+8	15
6	Birmingham	8	4	3	1	+5	15
7	Reading	8	4	3	1	+4	15
8	Sheffield Weds	7	5	0	2	+2	15
9	Brentford	8	4	2	2	+7	14
10	Leeds	8	4	2	2	+3	14
11	Burton Albion	7	4	1	2	+5	13
12	Nott'm Forest	7	4	1	2	+4	13
13	Ipswich	8	3	4	1	+4	13
14	Preston	8	4	0	4	+4	12
15	Aston Villa	7	2	5	0	+4	11
16	Barnsley	8	3	2	3	+2	11
17	Wigan	7	2	3	2	+2	9
18	Fulham	8	2	3	3	+0	9
19	Derby	8	2	3	3	-1	9
20	Blackburn	8	2	3	3	-2	9
21	QPR	8	2	3	3	-6	9
22	Wolves	8	2	2	4	-3	8
23	Cardiff	8	2	1	5	-6	7
24	Rotherham	7	1	3	3	-2	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Newcastle	8	6	1	1	+12	19
2	Fulham	8	4	3	1	+5	15
3	Brighton	7	3	3	1	+1	12
4	Derby	8	3	2	3	+0	11
5	Norwich	8	3	2	3	-4	11
6	QPR	7	3	1	3	+1	10
7	Reading	7	3	1	3	-5	10
8	Huddersfield	8	3	1	4	-6	10
9	Barnsley	7	3	0	4	+1	9
10	Wolves	8	2	3	3	+1	9
11	Leeds	7	3	0	4	-2	9
12	Birmingham	7	2	3	2	-2	9
13	Bristol City	8	2	2	4	+1	8
14	Brentford	8	2	2	4	-2	8
15	Cardiff	7	2	2	3	-4	8
16	Preston	7	2	2	3	-4	8
17	Aston Villa	8	1	4	3	-4	7
18	Sheffield Weds	7	1	3	3	-4	6
19	Wigan	8	1	2	5	-4	5
20	Ipswich	7	1	2	4	-6	5
21	Blackburn	7	1	1	5	-6	4
22	Burton Albion	8	0	4	4	-7	4
23	Nott'm Forest	8	0	2	6	-9	2
24	Rotherham	8	0	1	7	-17	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.