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Premier League

Referee: Anthony Taylor

Burnley

S S S U U

1–1

Full-time

Southampton

T U S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Burnley Southampton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

3,0

2,5

Scored

1,5

1,2

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,2

This season — Premier League · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 23%

25%

21%

Points per game

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

58%

63%

Both score Ø 57%

50%

63%

Average goals

2,9

2,8

Scored

1,0

1,1

Conceded

1,9

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

54% Possession 46%

15 Shots 10

6 Shots on target 4

6 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

4 Corners 2

2 Offside 0

10 Free kicks against 9

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Burnley 17. · Southampton 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	24	19	4	1	+41	61
2	Tottenham	25	19	0	6	+27	57
3	Man City	24	18	2	4	+44	56
4	Arsenal	24	14	5	5	+17	47
5	Chelsea	24	14	5	5	+17	47
6	Man United	24	13	6	5	+13	45
7	Wolves	24	10	5	9	-1	35
8	Everton	24	9	6	9	+2	33
9	Watford	24	9	6	9	-1	33
10	Bournemouth	24	10	3	11	-5	33
11	Leicester	24	9	5	10	+0	32
12	West Ham	24	9	4	11	-7	31
13	Brighton	24	7	5	12	-9	26
14	Newcastle	25	6	6	13	-12	24
15	Crystal Palace	24	6	5	13	-9	23
16	Southampton	24	5	8	11	-15	23
17	Burnley	24	6	5	13	-20	23
18	Cardiff	24	5	4	15	-26	19
19	Fulham	24	4	5	15	-28	17
20	Huddersfield	24	2	5	17	-28	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	12	11	0	1	+30	33
2	Liverpool	12	10	2	0	+25	32
3	Arsenal	13	10	2	1	+17	32
4	Chelsea	12	7	4	1	+12	25
5	Man United	12	7	4	1	+9	25
6	Tottenham	12	8	0	4	+10	24
7	Bournemouth	13	7	3	3	+8	24
8	Everton	12	6	3	3	+4	21
9	Wolves	13	6	2	5	+1	20
10	Brighton	11	5	3	3	+3	18
11	West Ham	12	5	2	5	-1	17
12	Watford	12	5	2	5	-2	17
13	Fulham	12	4	3	5	-6	15
14	Leicester	11	4	2	5	+1	14
15	Cardiff	12	4	2	6	-10	14
16	Newcastle	13	4	1	8	-6	13
17	Burnley	11	4	1	6	-7	13
18	Southampton	12	2	6	4	-5	12
19	Crystal Palace	11	2	3	6	-5	9
20	Huddersfield	13	1	2	10	-15	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	13	11	0	2	+17	33
2	Liverpool	12	9	2	1	+16	29
3	Man City	12	7	2	3	+14	23
4	Chelsea	12	7	1	4	+5	22
5	Man United	12	6	2	4	+4	20
6	Leicester	13	5	3	5	-1	18
7	Watford	12	4	4	4	+1	16
8	Arsenal	11	4	3	4	+0	15
9	Wolves	11	4	3	4	-2	15
10	Crystal Palace	13	4	2	7	-4	14
11	West Ham	12	4	2	6	-6	14
12	Everton	12	3	3	6	-2	12
13	Newcastle	12	2	5	5	-6	11
14	Southampton	12	3	2	7	-10	11
15	Burnley	13	2	4	7	-13	10
16	Bournemouth	11	3	0	8	-13	9
17	Brighton	13	2	2	9	-12	8
18	Huddersfield	11	1	3	7	-13	6
19	Cardiff	12	1	2	9	-16	5
20	Fulham	12	0	2	10	-22	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.