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Premier League

Referee: Graham Scott

Arsenal

T S S T S

2–0

Full-time

Southampton

S S U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arsenal Southampton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

3,0

2,2

Scored

1,8

1,2

Conceded

1,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,2

This season — Premier League · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 39%

58%

19%

Points per game

1,9

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

65%

62%

Both score Ø 71%

77%

65%

Average goals

3,5

2,8

Scored

2,0

1,1

Conceded

1,4

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,6

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

62% Possession 38%

12 Shots 10

4 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 4

3 Offside 1

7 Free kicks against 14

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arsenal 5. · Southampton 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	27	21	2	4	+54	65
2	Liverpool	26	20	5	1	+44	65
3	Tottenham	27	20	0	7	+28	60
4	Man United	26	15	6	5	+17	51
5	Arsenal	26	15	5	6	+16	50
6	Chelsea	26	15	5	6	+16	50
7	Watford	27	11	7	9	+4	40
8	Wolves	27	11	7	9	+1	40
9	West Ham	27	10	6	11	-5	36
10	Bournemouth	27	10	4	13	-10	34
11	Everton	27	9	6	12	-3	33
12	Leicester	27	9	5	13	-6	32
13	Crystal Palace	27	8	6	13	-4	30
14	Burnley	27	8	6	13	-17	30
15	Newcastle	27	7	7	13	-10	28
16	Brighton	26	7	6	13	-11	27
17	Cardiff	27	7	4	16	-27	25
18	Southampton	26	5	9	12	-16	24
19	Fulham	27	4	5	18	-35	17
20	Huddersfield	27	2	5	20	-36	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	14	13	0	1	+38	39
2	Liverpool	13	11	2	0	+28	35
3	Arsenal	13	10	2	1	+17	32
4	Chelsea	13	8	4	1	+17	28
5	Tottenham	13	9	0	4	+12	27
6	Man United	12	7	4	1	+9	25
7	Bournemouth	14	7	4	3	+8	25
8	West Ham	14	6	3	5	+1	21
9	Wolves	14	6	3	5	+1	21
10	Everton	14	6	3	5	+0	21
11	Watford	13	6	2	5	-1	20
12	Brighton	13	5	4	4	+1	19
13	Burnley	13	5	2	6	-6	17
14	Cardiff	14	5	2	7	-12	17
15	Newcastle	14	5	1	8	-4	16
16	Fulham	13	4	3	6	-9	15
17	Leicester	13	4	2	7	-3	14
18	Crystal Palace	13	3	4	6	-3	13
19	Southampton	13	2	6	5	-6	12
20	Huddersfield	14	1	2	11	-16	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	14	11	0	3	+16	33
2	Liverpool	13	9	3	1	+16	30
3	Man City	13	8	2	3	+16	26
4	Man United	14	8	2	4	+8	26
5	Chelsea	13	7	1	5	-1	22
6	Watford	14	5	5	4	+5	20
7	Wolves	13	5	4	4	+0	19
8	Arsenal	13	5	3	5	-1	18
9	Leicester	14	5	3	6	-3	18
10	Crystal Palace	14	5	2	7	-1	17
11	West Ham	13	4	3	6	-6	15
12	Burnley	14	3	4	7	-11	13
13	Everton	13	3	3	7	-3	12
14	Newcastle	13	2	6	5	-6	12
15	Southampton	13	3	3	7	-10	12
16	Bournemouth	13	3	0	10	-18	9
17	Brighton	13	2	2	9	-12	8
18	Cardiff	13	2	2	9	-15	8
19	Huddersfield	13	1	3	9	-20	6
20	Fulham	14	0	2	12	-26	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.