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Premier League

Referee: Simon Hooper

Southampton

T T U U T

1–1

Full-time

Watford

T T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Southampton Watford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 17%

17%

Average goals

2,5

2,3

Scored

0,2

1,0

Conceded

2,3

1,3

Goal diff per game

-2,2

-0,3

This season — Premier League · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 32%

55%

Points per game

0,6

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

55%

Both score Ø 41%

36%

45%

Average goals

2,5

2,6

Scored

0,6

1,5

Conceded

1,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,2

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

42% Possession 58%

14 Shots 12

4 Shots on target 6

4 Blocked shots 3

5 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 6

4 Offside 4

13 Free kicks against 13

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Southampton 17. · Watford 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	11	9	2	0	+29	29
2	Chelsea	11	8	3	0	+19	27
3	Liverpool	11	8	3	0	+16	27
4	Tottenham	11	8	0	3	+9	24
5	Arsenal	11	7	2	2	+11	23
6	Bournemouth	11	6	2	3	+6	20
7	Man United	11	6	2	3	+1	20
8	Watford	11	6	1	4	+3	19
9	Everton	11	5	3	3	+4	18
10	Leicester	11	5	1	5	+1	16
11	Wolves	11	4	3	4	-1	15
12	Brighton	12	4	2	6	-5	14
13	West Ham	11	3	2	6	-4	11
14	Crystal Palace	11	2	2	7	-8	8
15	Burnley	11	2	2	7	-13	8
16	Cardiff	12	2	2	8	-14	8
17	Southampton	11	1	4	6	-13	7
18	Newcastle	11	1	3	7	-7	6
19	Huddersfield	11	1	3	7	-16	6
20	Fulham	11	1	2	8	-18	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	6	6	0	0	+21	18
2	Chelsea	6	4	2	0	+8	14
3	Liverpool	5	4	1	0	+11	13
4	Everton	6	4	1	1	+6	13
5	Arsenal	6	4	1	1	+6	13
6	Watford	6	4	0	2	+2	12
7	Bournemouth	6	3	2	1	+4	11
8	Brighton	5	3	1	1	+2	10
9	Man United	5	3	1	1	+0	10
10	Wolves	6	2	2	2	+0	8
11	Leicester	5	2	1	2	+2	7
12	West Ham	6	2	1	3	+1	7
13	Cardiff	7	2	1	4	-5	7
14	Tottenham	4	2	0	2	+1	6
15	Burnley	5	1	1	3	-4	4
16	Huddersfield	6	1	1	4	-6	4
17	Fulham	5	1	1	3	-7	4
18	Southampton	5	0	3	2	-4	3
19	Newcastle	6	1	0	5	-5	3
20	Crystal Palace	5	0	2	3	-5	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	7	6	0	1	+8	18
2	Liverpool	6	4	2	0	+5	14
3	Chelsea	5	4	1	0	+11	13
4	Man City	5	3	2	0	+8	11
5	Arsenal	5	3	1	1	+5	10
6	Man United	6	3	1	2	+1	10
7	Bournemouth	5	3	0	2	+2	9
8	Leicester	6	3	0	3	-1	9
9	Watford	5	2	1	2	+1	7
10	Wolves	5	2	1	2	-1	7
11	Crystal Palace	6	2	0	4	-3	6
12	Everton	5	1	2	2	-2	5
13	West Ham	5	1	1	3	-5	4
14	Brighton	7	1	1	5	-7	4
15	Burnley	6	1	1	4	-9	4
16	Southampton	6	1	1	4	-9	4
17	Newcastle	5	0	3	2	-2	3
18	Huddersfield	5	0	2	3	-10	2
19	Cardiff	5	0	1	4	-9	1
20	Fulham	6	0	1	5	-11	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.