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Premier League

Referee: Craig Pawson

Newcastle

U T T T U

1–0

Full-time

Watford

U T T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Newcastle Watford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

1,8

2,7

Scored

0,5

1,2

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,3

This season — Premier League · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 30%

60%

Points per game

0,3

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

50%

60%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,0

2,8

Scored

0,6

1,6

Conceded

1,4

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

41% Possession 59%

10 Shots 16

2 Shots on target 1

4 Blocked shots 5

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

8 Corners 9

4 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Newcastle 19. · Watford 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	10	8	2	0	+24	26
2	Liverpool	10	8	2	0	+16	26
3	Chelsea	10	7	3	0	+17	24
4	Arsenal	10	7	1	2	+11	22
5	Tottenham	10	7	0	3	+8	21
6	Bournemouth	11	6	2	3	+6	20
7	Man United	11	6	2	3	+1	20
8	Watford	10	6	1	3	+4	19
9	Everton	10	4	3	3	+2	15
10	Wolves	10	4	3	3	+0	15
11	Brighton	10	4	2	4	-2	14
12	Leicester	10	4	1	5	+0	13
13	West Ham	10	2	2	6	-6	8
14	Crystal Palace	10	2	2	6	-6	8
15	Burnley	10	2	2	6	-11	8
16	Southampton	10	1	4	5	-8	7
17	Cardiff	10	1	2	7	-14	5
18	Fulham	10	1	2	7	-17	5
19	Newcastle	10	0	3	7	-8	3
20	Huddersfield	10	0	3	7	-17	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	5	5	0	0	+16	15
2	Liverpool	5	4	1	0	+11	13
3	Arsenal	5	4	0	1	+6	12
4	Watford	6	4	0	2	+2	12
5	Chelsea	5	3	2	0	+6	11
6	Bournemouth	6	3	2	1	+4	11
7	Everton	5	3	1	1	+4	10
8	Brighton	5	3	1	1	+2	10
9	Man United	5	3	1	1	+0	10
10	Wolves	5	2	2	1	+1	8
11	Leicester	5	2	1	2	+2	7
12	Tottenham	4	2	0	2	+1	6
13	West Ham	5	1	1	3	-1	4
14	Burnley	5	1	1	3	-4	4
15	Cardiff	5	1	1	3	-5	4
16	Fulham	5	1	1	3	-7	4
17	Southampton	5	0	3	2	-4	3
18	Crystal Palace	5	0	2	3	-5	2
19	Huddersfield	5	0	1	4	-7	1
20	Newcastle	5	0	0	5	-6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	6	5	0	1	+7	15
2	Chelsea	5	4	1	0	+11	13
3	Liverpool	5	4	1	0	+5	13
4	Man City	5	3	2	0	+8	11
5	Arsenal	5	3	1	1	+5	10
6	Man United	6	3	1	2	+1	10
7	Bournemouth	5	3	0	2	+2	9
8	Watford	4	2	1	1	+2	7
9	Wolves	5	2	1	2	-1	7
10	Crystal Palace	5	2	0	3	-1	6
11	Leicester	5	2	0	3	-2	6
12	Everton	5	1	2	2	-2	5
13	Southampton	5	1	1	3	-4	4
14	Brighton	5	1	1	3	-4	4
15	West Ham	5	1	1	3	-5	4
16	Burnley	5	1	1	3	-7	4
17	Newcastle	5	0	3	2	-2	3
18	Huddersfield	5	0	2	3	-10	2
19	Cardiff	5	0	1	4	-9	1
20	Fulham	5	0	1	4	-10	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.