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Primeira Liga

Referee: Rui Manuel Gomes Costa

Nacional

U T U T U

1–0

Full-time

Maritimo

U T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nacional Maritimo

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,5

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 25%

33%

17%

Average goals

2,7

1,7

Scored

0,7

0,3

Conceded

2,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,3

-1,0

This season — Primeira Liga · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 22%

11%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 45%

56%

33%

Average goals

3,1

2,0

Scored

1,0

0,7

Conceded

2,1

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,1

-0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

57% Possession 43%

16 Shots 9

3 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

0 Corners 3

2 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 24

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nacional 18. · Maritimo 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	9	7	0	2	+14	21
2	Sp Braga	9	6	3	0	+10	21
3	Sp Lisbon	9	6	1	2	+7	19
4	Rio Ave	10	5	3	2	+4	18
5	Benfica	9	5	2	2	+6	17
6	Moreirense	10	5	1	4	-3	16
7	Santa Clara	9	4	2	3	+3	14
8	Vitoria Setubal	10	4	2	4	+2	14
9	Guimaraes	9	3	3	3	+1	12
10	Belenenses	10	2	6	2	-1	12
11	Portimonense	10	3	2	5	-6	11
12	Aves	10	3	1	6	-4	10
13	Maritimo	9	3	1	5	-6	10
14	Tondela	9	2	3	4	+0	9
15	Feirense	10	2	3	5	-4	9
16	Boavista	10	2	3	5	-6	9
17	Chaves	9	2	1	6	-7	7
18	Nacional	9	1	3	5	-10	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Braga	5	4	1	0	+6	13
2	Rio Ave	5	4	1	0	+5	13
3	Porto	5	4	0	1	+10	12
4	Sp Lisbon	4	4	0	0	+7	12
5	Benfica	5	3	1	1	+2	10
6	Moreirense	5	3	1	1	+2	10
7	Vitoria Setubal	5	3	0	2	+3	9
8	Portimonense	5	2	2	1	+1	8
9	Aves	5	2	1	2	+2	7
10	Santa Clara	5	2	1	2	+0	7
11	Maritimo	5	2	1	2	-2	7
12	Feirense	5	1	3	1	+0	6
13	Tondela	5	1	2	2	+0	5
14	Guimaraes	4	1	2	1	+0	5
15	Belenenses	5	1	2	2	-2	5
16	Chaves	4	1	1	2	+0	4
17	Boavista	4	1	1	2	-2	4
18	Nacional	4	0	0	4	-9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	4	3	0	1	+4	9
2	Sp Braga	4	2	2	0	+4	8
3	Benfica	4	2	1	1	+4	7
4	Santa Clara	4	2	1	1	+3	7
5	Guimaraes	5	2	1	2	+1	7
6	Belenenses	5	1	4	0	+1	7
7	Sp Lisbon	5	2	1	2	+0	7
8	Nacional	5	1	3	1	-1	6
9	Moreirense	5	2	0	3	-5	6
10	Rio Ave	5	1	2	2	-1	5
11	Vitoria Setubal	5	1	2	2	-1	5
12	Boavista	6	1	2	3	-4	5
13	Tondela	4	1	1	2	+0	4
14	Feirense	5	1	0	4	-4	3
15	Maritimo	4	1	0	3	-4	3
16	Aves	5	1	0	4	-6	3
17	Chaves	5	1	0	4	-7	3
18	Portimonense	5	1	0	4	-7	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.