Premier League
Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Burnley
Chelsea
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 0–1
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Liverpool
|
10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | +16 | 26 |
| 2 |
Man City
|
9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | +23 | 23 |
| 3 |
Chelsea
|
9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | +13 | 21 |
| 4 |
Arsenal
|
9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | +11 | 21 |
| 5 |
Tottenham
|
9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | +9 | 21 |
| 6 |
Bournemouth
|
10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | +7 | 20 |
| 7 |
Watford
|
10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | +4 | 19 |
| 8 |
Everton
|
9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | +3 | 15 |
| 9 |
Wolves
|
10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | +0 | 15 |
| 10 |
Man United
|
9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 11 |
Brighton
|
10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 14 |
| 12 |
Leicester
|
10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | +0 | 13 |
| 13 |
West Ham
|
10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -6 | 8 |
| 14 |
Burnley
|
9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 15 |
Crystal Palace
|
9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 7 |
| 16 |
Southampton
|
10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -8 | 7 |
| 17 |
Cardiff
|
10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -14 | 5 |
| 18 |
Fulham
|
10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -17 | 5 |
| 19 |
Newcastle
|
10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 3 |
| 20 |
Huddersfield
|
10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | -17 | 3 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
J. Tarkowski
D
C. Taylor
D
Coach: S. Dyche
Kepa
G
Marcos Alonso
D
A. Rüdiger
D
R. Barkley
M
N. Kanté
M
Álvaro Morata
F
Coach: M. Sarri
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Man City
Burnley
Burnley
Huddersfield
Cardiff
Burnley
Burnley
Bournemouth
Wolves
Burnley
Craig Pawson · 139 kamper i vår database
🟥 Red cards: 0,15 per match
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.