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Eredivisie

Referee: Serdar Gozubuyuk

AZ Alkmaar

U S U T T

2–3

Full-time

Heerenveen

T U U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

AZ Alkmaar Heerenveen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

3,8

4,5

Scored

1,5

2,2

Conceded

2,3

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,2

This season — Eredivisie · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 28%

33%

22%

Points per game

1,3

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 73%

78%

67%

Both score Ø 73%

67%

78%

Average goals

3,7

4,7

Scored

2,0

2,2

Conceded

1,7

2,4

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

60% Possession 40%

15 Shots 12

7 Shots on target 7

4 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

6 Corners 1

0 Offside 3

12 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match AZ Alkmaar 7. · Heerenveen 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	10	10	0	0	+34	30
2	Ajax	10	8	1	1	+24	25
3	Feyenoord	10	6	2	2	+7	20
4	Heracles	10	6	2	2	+4	20
5	VVV Venlo	10	4	3	3	+1	15
6	Utrecht	10	4	3	3	-1	15
7	AZ Alkmaar	9	3	3	3	+3	12
8	Vitesse	9	3	3	3	+0	12
9	Excelsior	10	3	3	4	-5	12
10	Den Haag	10	3	3	4	-7	12
11	Zwolle	10	3	2	5	-5	11
12	Heerenveen	9	2	4	3	-2	10
13	Willem II	10	2	4	4	-2	10
14	For Sittard	10	2	4	4	-3	10
15	De Graafschap	10	3	1	6	-10	10
16	FC Emmen	10	2	3	5	-14	9
17	NAC Breda	10	1	2	7	-13	5
18	Groningen	9	1	1	7	-11	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	5	5	0	0	+22	15
2	Heracles	5	5	0	0	+11	15
3	Feyenoord	5	5	0	0	+10	15
4	Ajax	5	4	1	0	+16	13
5	Utrecht	5	3	1	1	+3	10
6	De Graafschap	6	3	0	3	-1	9
7	Excelsior	5	2	2	1	+1	8
8	VVV Venlo	4	2	1	1	+4	7
9	Vitesse	4	2	1	1	+1	7
10	Den Haag	5	2	1	2	-5	7
11	AZ Alkmaar	4	1	3	0	+5	6
12	Willem II	5	1	2	2	+3	5
13	For Sittard	5	1	2	2	-1	5
14	NAC Breda	5	1	1	3	-2	4
15	Zwolle	5	1	1	3	-2	4
16	FC Emmen	5	0	3	2	-4	3
17	Heerenveen	5	0	2	3	-8	2
18	Groningen	5	0	1	4	-5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	5	5	0	0	+12	15
2	Ajax	5	4	0	1	+8	12
3	Heerenveen	4	2	2	0	+6	8
4	VVV Venlo	6	2	2	2	-3	8
5	Zwolle	5	2	1	2	-3	7
6	AZ Alkmaar	5	2	0	3	-2	6
7	FC Emmen	5	2	0	3	-10	6
8	Vitesse	5	1	2	2	-1	5
9	For Sittard	5	1	2	2	-2	5
10	Den Haag	5	1	2	2	-2	5
11	Feyenoord	5	1	2	2	-3	5
12	Utrecht	5	1	2	2	-4	5
13	Willem II	5	1	2	2	-5	5
14	Heracles	5	1	2	2	-7	5
15	Excelsior	5	1	1	3	-6	4
16	Groningen	4	1	0	3	-6	3
17	De Graafschap	4	0	1	3	-9	1
18	NAC Breda	5	0	1	4	-11	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.