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Premier League

Referee: Neil Swarbrick

Chelsea

S S U S U

3–1

Full-time

Swansea

T S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chelsea Swansea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,8

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,5

3,3

Scored

1,7

Conceded

0,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,0

This season — Premier League · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 52%

76%

28%

Points per game

2,4

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 68%

60%

76%

Both score Ø 50%

40%

60%

Average goals

2,8

3,4

Scored

2,1

1,2

Conceded

0,7

2,2

Goal diff per game

+1,4

-0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

65% Possession 35%

16 Shots 3

5 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

8 Corners 1

1 Offside 0

11 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Chelsea 1. · Swansea 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	25	19	3	3	+34	60
2	Man City	25	16	4	5	+22	52
3	Tottenham	25	14	8	3	+28	50
4	Arsenal	25	15	5	5	+26	50
5	Liverpool	25	14	7	4	+24	49
6	Man United	25	13	9	3	+17	48
7	Everton	25	11	8	6	+13	41
8	West Brom	25	10	7	8	+3	37
9	Stoke	25	8	8	9	-6	32
10	West Ham	25	9	5	11	-9	32
11	Southampton	25	8	6	11	-3	30
12	Burnley	25	9	3	13	-9	30
13	Watford	25	8	6	11	-13	30
14	Bournemouth	25	7	5	13	-14	26
15	Swansea	25	7	3	15	-23	24
16	Middlesbrough	25	4	10	11	-8	22
17	Leicester	25	5	6	14	-19	21
18	Hull	25	5	5	15	-27	20
19	Crystal Palace	25	5	4	16	-14	19
20	Sunderland	25	5	4	16	-22	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	12	11	0	1	+26	33
2	Tottenham	12	10	2	0	+21	32
3	Arsenal	13	9	2	2	+13	29
4	Burnley	14	9	2	3	+10	29
5	Liverpool	12	8	3	1	+20	27
6	Everton	12	7	4	1	+15	25
7	Man City	12	7	4	1	+10	25
8	Man United	13	6	6	1	+10	24
9	West Brom	12	7	2	3	+8	23
10	Stoke	13	5	5	3	+1	20
11	Bournemouth	13	5	3	5	+0	18
12	Leicester	12	5	3	4	+0	18
13	Southampton	12	5	3	4	+0	18
14	Watford	12	5	3	4	-1	18
15	West Ham	13	5	3	5	-8	18
16	Hull	12	4	3	5	-5	15
17	Swansea	13	4	2	7	-10	14
18	Middlesbrough	13	3	4	6	-3	13
19	Sunderland	13	3	3	7	-10	12
20	Crystal Palace	12	2	1	9	-7	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	13	9	0	4	+12	27
2	Chelsea	13	8	3	2	+8	27
3	Man United	12	7	3	2	+7	24
4	Liverpool	13	6	4	3	+4	22
5	Arsenal	12	6	3	3	+13	21
6	Tottenham	13	4	6	3	+7	18
7	Everton	13	4	4	5	-2	16
8	West Ham	12	4	2	6	-1	14
9	West Brom	13	3	5	5	-5	14
10	Southampton	13	3	3	7	-3	12
11	Crystal Palace	13	3	3	7	-7	12
12	Stoke	12	3	3	6	-7	12
13	Watford	13	3	3	7	-12	12
14	Swansea	12	3	1	8	-13	10
15	Middlesbrough	12	1	6	5	-5	9
16	Bournemouth	12	2	2	8	-14	8
17	Sunderland	12	2	1	9	-12	7
18	Hull	13	1	2	10	-22	5
19	Leicester	13	0	3	10	-19	3
20	Burnley	11	0	1	10	-19	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.