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Premier League

Referee: Mike Dean

Man City

T S T U S

2–1

Full-time

Swansea

T S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Swansea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 92%

83%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

3,2

3,8

Scored

1,8

1,3

Conceded

1,3

2,5

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-1,2

This season — Premier League · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 44%

61%

26%

Points per game

2,0

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 76%

74%

78%

Both score Ø 63%

65%

61%

Average goals

3,3

3,5

Scored

2,0

1,2

Conceded

1,2

2,3

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

68% Possession 32%

17 Shots 4

5 Shots on target 2

7 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

10 Corners 3

4 Offside 0

9 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man City 5. · Swansea 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	24	19	2	3	+34	59
2	Tottenham	24	14	8	2	+30	50
3	Arsenal	24	14	5	5	+24	47
4	Liverpool	24	13	7	4	+22	46
5	Man City	23	14	4	5	+19	46
6	Man United	23	11	9	3	+12	42
7	Everton	24	11	7	6	+13	40
8	West Brom	24	10	6	8	+3	36
9	West Ham	24	9	4	11	-9	31
10	Watford	24	8	6	10	-11	30
11	Stoke	24	7	8	9	-7	29
12	Burnley	24	9	2	13	-9	29
13	Southampton	24	7	6	11	-7	27
14	Bournemouth	24	7	5	12	-12	26
15	Middlesbrough	24	4	9	11	-8	21
16	Leicester	23	5	6	12	-14	21
17	Swansea	23	6	3	14	-24	21
18	Hull	24	5	5	14	-25	20
19	Crystal Palace	24	5	4	15	-13	19
20	Sunderland	24	5	4	15	-18	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	12	11	0	1	+26	33
2	Tottenham	12	10	2	0	+21	32
3	Burnley	13	9	1	3	+10	28
4	Arsenal	12	8	2	2	+11	26
5	Everton	12	7	4	1	+15	25
6	Liverpool	11	7	3	1	+18	24
7	West Brom	12	7	2	3	+8	23
8	Man City	11	6	4	1	+9	22
9	Man United	12	5	6	1	+8	21
10	Leicester	11	5	3	3	+3	18
11	Bournemouth	12	5	3	4	+2	18
12	Southampton	12	5	3	4	+0	18
13	Watford	12	5	3	4	-1	18
14	Stoke	12	4	5	3	+0	17
15	West Ham	12	5	2	5	-8	17
16	Hull	12	4	3	5	-5	15
17	Middlesbrough	12	3	3	6	-3	12
18	Sunderland	12	3	3	6	-6	12
19	Swansea	12	3	2	7	-12	11
20	Crystal Palace	12	2	1	9	-7	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	12	8	2	2	+8	26
2	Man City	12	8	0	4	+10	24
3	Liverpool	13	6	4	3	+4	22
4	Arsenal	12	6	3	3	+13	21
5	Man United	11	6	3	2	+4	21
6	Tottenham	12	4	6	2	+9	18
7	Everton	12	4	3	5	-2	15
8	West Ham	12	4	2	6	-1	14
9	West Brom	12	3	4	5	-5	13
10	Crystal Palace	12	3	3	6	-6	12
11	Stoke	12	3	3	6	-7	12
12	Watford	12	3	3	6	-10	12
13	Swansea	11	3	1	7	-12	10
14	Middlesbrough	12	1	6	5	-5	9
15	Southampton	12	2	3	7	-7	9
16	Bournemouth	12	2	2	8	-14	8
17	Sunderland	12	2	1	9	-12	7
18	Hull	12	1	2	9	-20	5
19	Leicester	12	0	3	9	-17	3
20	Burnley	11	0	1	10	-19	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.