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Premier League
Referee: Roger East
Swansea
T T S T S
2–1
Full-time
Southampton
T T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Swansea Southampton
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,0
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 92%
100%
83%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
3,8
3,2
Scored
1,0
1,3
Conceded
2,8
1,8
Goal diff per game
-1,8
-0,5
This season — Premier League · 22/22 matches
Win Ø 28%
23%
32%
Points per game
0,8
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 61%
77%
45%
Both score Ø 50%
59%
41%
Average goals
3,5
2,2
Scored
1,2
1,0
Conceded
2,3
1,2
Goal diff per game
-1,1
-0,2
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

43% Possession 57%
12 Shots 10
5 Shots on target 2
3 Blocked shots 3
1 Goalkeeper saves 3
5 Corners 4
1 Offside 1
10 Free kicks against 19
2 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Swansea 17. · Southampton 11.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Chelsea 22 18 1 3 +32 55
2 Arsenal 22 14 5 3 +27 47
3 Tottenham 22 13 7 2 +29 46
4 Liverpool 22 13 6 3 +24 45
5 Man City 22 13 4 5 +15 43
6 Man United 22 11 8 3 +12 41
7 Everton 22 10 6 6 +10 36
8 West Brom 22 9 5 8 +2 32
9 Stoke 22 7 7 8 -6 28
10 West Ham 22 8 4 10 -7 28
11 Southampton 22 7 6 9 -4 27
12 Bournemouth 22 7 5 10 -7 26
13 Burnley 22 8 2 12 -9 26
14 Watford 22 6 6 10 -13 24
15 Leicester 22 5 6 11 -13 21
16 Middlesbrough 22 4 8 10 -7 20
17 Swansea 22 5 3 14 -25 18
18 Crystal Palace 22 4 4 14 -11 16
19 Hull 22 4 4 14 -27 16
20 Sunderland 22 4 3 15 -22 15

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Swansea Southampton
1–0 A. Mawson
G. Sigurðsson
38′
Jack Cork 🟨
44′
Half-time 1–0
56′
🔁 S. Boufal
↦ D. Tadić
57′
S. Long 1–1
R. Bertrand
L. Narsingh 🔁
↦ W. Routledge
60′
2–1 G. Sigurðsson
L. Narsingh
70′
Sung-Yeung Ki 🔁
↦ L. Fer
72′
Àngel Rangel 🔁
↦ Martin Olsson
76′
76′
🔁 S. McQueen
↦ J. Clasie
76′
🔁 J. Sims
↦ N. Redmond
Federico Fernández 🟨
82′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Swansea

4-3-3
1 Ł. Fabiański G
16 Martin Olsson D
26 K. Naughton D
33 F. Fernández D
6 A. Mawson D
15 W. Routledge F
24 J. Cork M
8 L. Fer M
23 G. Sigurðsson F
42 T. Carroll M
9 Llorente F
Bench (7)
28 L. Narsingh
4 Sung-Yeung Ki
22 Àngel Rangel
2 Jordi Amat
10 Borja Bastón
12 N. Dyer
13 K. Nordfeldt

Coach: P. Clement

Southampton

4-3-3
1 F. Forster G
3 M. Yoshida D
21 R. Bertrand D
2 Cédric Soares D
24 J. Stephens D
8 S. Davis M
11 D. Tadić F
14 Oriol Romeu M
4 J. Clasie M
22 N. Redmond F
7 S. Long F
Bench (7)
19 S. Boufal
38 S. McQueen
39 J. Sims
5 F. Gardoş
18 H. Reed
23 P. Højbjerg
28 S. Taylor

Coach: C. Puel

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Roger East · 87 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,7 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
16,7 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,08 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.