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Bundesliga

Referee: Daniel Siebert

Freiburg

T S T S U

0–3

Full-time

Dortmund

S U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Freiburg Dortmund

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

100%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

3,2

2,3

Scored

1,5

Conceded

1,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,7

This season — Bundesliga · 21/21 matches

Win Ø 46%

43%

48%

Points per game

1,4

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

76%

57%

Both score Ø 69%

71%

67%

Average goals

3,0

3,1

Scored

1,3

2,0

Conceded

1,7

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

36% Possession 64%

8 Shots 27

3 Shots on target 10

1 Blocked shots 7

7 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 3

3 Offside 2

8 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Freiburg 9. · Dortmund 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	21	15	5	1	+33	50
2	RB Leipzig	21	14	3	4	+17	45
3	Dortmund	21	10	7	4	+20	37
4	Hoffenheim	21	9	10	2	+17	37
5	Ein Frankfurt	21	10	5	6	+5	35
6	Hertha	21	10	4	7	+4	34
7	FC Koln	21	8	9	4	+11	33
8	Leverkusen	21	9	3	9	+4	30
9	Freiburg	21	9	3	9	-8	30
10	Schalke 04	21	7	5	9	+3	26
11	M'gladbach	21	7	5	9	-6	26
12	Mainz	21	7	4	10	-8	25
13	Augsburg	21	6	6	9	-8	24
14	Wolfsburg	22	6	4	12	-13	22
15	Werder Bremen	22	6	4	12	-15	22
16	Hamburg	21	5	5	11	-16	20
17	FC Ingolstadt 04	21	5	3	13	-13	18
18	Darmstadt	21	3	3	15	-27	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Hertha	10	8	1	1	+12	25
2	RB Leipzig	10	8	1	1	+10	25
3	Bayern Munich	10	7	3	0	+22	24
4	Dortmund	10	7	3	0	+17	24
5	Hoffenheim	11	6	5	0	+13	23
6	Ein Frankfurt	10	6	3	1	+7	21
7	Freiburg	10	7	0	3	+1	21
8	FC Koln	10	5	5	0	+10	20
9	Schalke 04	11	6	1	4	+8	19
10	M'gladbach	11	5	3	3	+7	18
11	Mainz	11	5	3	3	+4	18
12	Leverkusen	11	5	2	4	+4	17
13	Augsburg	11	3	3	5	-7	12
14	Darmstadt	11	3	3	5	-7	12
15	Hamburg	10	3	3	4	-8	12
16	Wolfsburg	12	3	2	7	-7	11
17	Werder Bremen	11	3	1	7	-5	10
18	FC Ingolstadt 04	10	2	2	6	-7	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	11	8	2	1	+11	26
2	RB Leipzig	11	6	2	3	+7	20
3	Hoffenheim	10	3	5	2	+4	14
4	Ein Frankfurt	11	4	2	5	-2	14
5	Dortmund	11	3	4	4	+3	13
6	FC Koln	11	3	4	4	+1	13
7	Leverkusen	10	4	1	5	+0	13
8	Augsburg	10	3	3	4	-1	12
9	Werder Bremen	11	3	3	5	-10	12
10	Wolfsburg	10	3	2	5	-6	11
11	FC Ingolstadt 04	11	3	1	7	-6	10
12	Hertha	11	2	3	6	-8	9
13	Freiburg	11	2	3	6	-9	9
14	Hamburg	11	2	2	7	-8	8
15	M'gladbach	10	2	2	6	-13	8
16	Schalke 04	10	1	4	5	-5	7
17	Mainz	10	2	1	7	-12	7
18	Darmstadt	10	0	0	10	-20	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.