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La Liga

Referee: Mario Melero Lopez

Alaves

U U S T S

2–1

Full-time

Valencia

T T U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Alaves Valencia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

3,0

2,5

Scored

1,2

Conceded

1,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,2

This season — La Liga · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 30%

30%

Points per game

1,3

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

39%

70%

Both score Ø 59%

43%

74%

Average goals

2,2

3,2

Scored

1,0

1,4

Conceded

1,2

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

44% Possession 56%

13 Shots 5

5 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 1

3 Offside 3

13 Free kicks against 16

4 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Alaves 11. · Valencia 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	22	16	4	2	+37	52
2	Barcelona	23	15	6	2	+44	51
3	Sevilla	23	15	4	4	+18	49
4	Ath Madrid	23	13	6	4	+24	45
5	Sociedad	24	14	2	8	+5	44
6	Villarreal	23	10	9	4	+15	39
7	Eibar	23	10	5	8	+5	35
8	Ath Bilbao	23	10	5	8	+0	35
9	Celta	22	10	3	9	+0	33
10	Espanol	23	8	8	7	-1	32
11	Alaves	23	7	9	7	-6	30
12	Las Palmas	24	7	7	10	-4	28
13	Malaga	23	6	8	9	-6	26
14	Valencia	23	7	5	11	-8	26
15	Betis	22	6	6	10	-13	24
16	La Coruna	22	4	7	11	-9	19
17	Leganes	23	4	6	13	-23	18
18	Sp Gijon	23	4	4	15	-22	16
19	Granada	23	3	7	13	-28	16
20	Osasuna	23	1	7	15	-28	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	12	10	2	0	+21	32
2	Sevilla	11	9	1	1	+12	28
3	Ath Bilbao	12	8	3	1	+9	27
4	Ath Madrid	11	8	2	1	+16	26
5	Barcelona	11	7	3	1	+20	24
6	Villarreal	12	7	3	2	+12	24
7	Celta	11	8	0	3	+6	24
8	Las Palmas	13	6	5	2	+9	23
9	Eibar	12	7	2	3	+6	23
10	Sociedad	12	7	2	3	+4	23
11	Malaga	11	6	2	3	+4	20
12	Betis	12	4	6	2	+0	18
13	Espanol	12	4	5	3	+3	17
14	La Coruna	10	4	2	4	+4	14
15	Valencia	11	4	2	5	-5	14
16	Granada	11	3	4	4	+0	13
17	Alaves	11	2	6	3	-7	12
18	Sp Gijon	11	3	1	7	-12	10
19	Leganes	11	1	4	6	-10	7
20	Osasuna	12	0	4	8	-14	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	12	8	3	1	+24	27
2	Sevilla	12	6	3	3	+6	21
3	Sociedad	12	7	0	5	+1	21
4	Real Madrid	10	6	2	2	+16	20
5	Ath Madrid	12	5	4	3	+8	19
6	Alaves	12	5	3	4	+1	18
7	Villarreal	11	3	6	2	+3	15
8	Espanol	11	4	3	4	-4	15
9	Eibar	11	3	3	5	-1	12
10	Valencia	12	3	3	6	-3	12
11	Leganes	12	3	2	7	-13	11
12	Celta	11	2	3	6	-6	9
13	Ath Bilbao	11	2	2	7	-9	8
14	Malaga	12	0	6	6	-10	6
15	Sp Gijon	12	1	3	8	-10	6
16	Betis	10	2	0	8	-13	6
17	Osasuna	11	1	3	7	-14	6
18	La Coruna	12	0	5	7	-13	5
19	Las Palmas	11	1	2	8	-13	5
20	Granada	12	0	3	9	-28	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.