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Primeira Liga

Referee: Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo

Moreirense

U U T S T

0–4

Full-time

Benfica

S S S S S

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Moreirense Benfica

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

17%

83%

Points per game

0,8

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,3

3,8

Scored

0,7

3,2

Conceded

1,7

0,7

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+2,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 50%

25%

75%

Points per game

1,0

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 88%

75%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,0

4,3

Scored

1,0

3,5

Conceded

2,0

0,8

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+2,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,39 xG 2,99

26% Possession 74%

8 Shots 21

1 Shots on target 9

1 Blocked shots 3

5 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 7

0 Offside 3

17 Free kicks against 10

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Moreirense 13. · Benfica 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	5	5	0	0	+10	+5.4	15
2	Sp Lisbon	5	4	1	0	+9	+4.3	13
3	Santa Clara	5	3	2	0	+6	+2.5	11
4	Benfica	4	3	1	0	+11	+6.7	10
5	Arouca	5	3	1	1	+4	-1.3	10
6	Sp Braga	3	2	1	0	+2	+1.7	7
7	Gil Vicente	4	2	1	1	+2	+2.5	7
8	Maritimo	5	2	1	2	-2	+0.1	7
9	Estrela	4	1	3	0	+1	-0.8	6
10	Academico Viseu	5	1	2	2	-3	-3.2	5
11	Nacional	5	1	1	3	-2	-3.3	4
12	Guimaraes	5	1	1	3	-2	+4.1	4
13	Moreirense	4	1	1	2	-4	-3.3	4
14	Famalicao	5	0	3	2	-2	-0.9	3
15	Rio Ave	5	1	0	4	-9	-4.5	3
16	Alverca	5	0	2	3	-5	-3.1	2
17	Estoril	5	0	2	3	-5	-3.0	2
18	Casa Pia	5	0	1	4	-11	-3.9	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	3	3	0	0	+5	+1.6	9
2	Porto	3	3	0	0	+5	+3.4	9
3	Santa Clara	3	2	1	0	+5	+0.8	7
4	Arouca	2	2	0	0	+5	+2.7	6
5	Gil Vicente	3	2	0	1	+2	+2.5	6
6	Benfica	2	1	1	0	+1	+4.0	4
7	Guimaraes	3	1	1	1	+0	+4.6	4
8	Maritimo	3	1	1	1	-2	+0.2	4
9	Nacional	2	1	0	1	+1	-0.1	3
10	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.6	3
11	Estrela	2	0	2	0	+0	-1.5	2
12	Alverca	3	0	2	1	-1	-0.4	2
13	Estoril	3	0	2	1	-2	-0.2	2
14	Moreirense	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.1	1
15	Famalicao	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.0	1
16	Academico Viseu	2	0	0	2	-4	-1.4	0
17	Rio Ave	2	0	0	2	-6	-2.5	0
18	Casa Pia	2	0	0	2	-8	-2.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	2	2	0	0	+10	+2.7	6
2	Porto	2	2	0	0	+5	+2.0	6
3	Academico Viseu	3	1	2	0	+1	-1.8	5
4	Sp Lisbon	2	1	1	0	+4	+2.7	4
5	Estrela	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.7	4
6	Sp Braga	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.1	4
7	Santa Clara	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.7	4
8	Arouca	3	1	1	1	-1	-4.0	4
9	Maritimo	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.0	3
10	Rio Ave	3	1	0	2	-3	-1.9	3
11	Moreirense	3	1	0	2	-4	-2.2	3
12	Famalicao	3	0	2	1	-1	+0.1	2
13	Gil Vicente	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
14	Nacional	3	0	1	2	-3	-3.2	1
15	Casa Pia	3	0	1	2	-3	-1.7	1
16	Guimaraes	2	0	0	2	-2	-0.5	0
17	Estoril	2	0	0	2	-3	-2.8	0
18	Alverca	2	0	0	2	-4	-2.7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

25. Apr -26 Benfica – Moreirense 4–1 14. Dec -25 Moreirense – Benfica 0–4 8. Feb -25 Benfica – Moreirense 3–2 30. Aug -24 Moreirense – Benfica 1–1 14. Apr -24 Benfica – Moreirense 3–0

Match report

Moreirense Benfica

Gilberto Batista 🟨

42′

45′

ℹ️ Clément Lenglet

VAR: Penalty confirmed

Half-time 0–0

Alexandre Parsemain 🟨

48′

49′

⚽ Vangelis Pavlidis 0–1

Landerson Costa Araújo 🟨

52′

55′

⚽ Andreas Schjelderup 0–2

Gianluca Prestianni

Yan Maranhão 🔁

↦ Alexandre Parsemain

56′

Tiago Andrade 🔁

↦ Landerson Costa Araújo

56′

59′

⚽ Gianluca Prestianni 0–3

Andreas Schjelderup

Leandro Santos 🔁

↦ Dinis Pinto

66′

Kiko Bondoso 🔁

↦ Nile John

66′

🔁 Jhon Durán

↦ Vangelis Pavlidis

66′

🔁 Fredrik Aursnes

↦ Leandro Barreiro

66′

🔁 Dodi Lukebakio

↦ Gianluca Prestianni

72′

⚽ Fredrik Aursnes 0–4

Andreas Schjelderup

75′

🟨 João Palhinha

78′

🔁 Souffian El Karouani

↦ Samuel Dahl

Kevyn Monteiro 🔁

↦ Jóbson de Brito Gonzaga

79′

86′

🔁 Heorhii Sudakov

↦ Rafa Silva

Mateja Stjepanović 🟨

87′

91′

🟨 Jhon Durán

Full-time 0–4

Line-ups

Moreirense

4-2-3-1

André Ferreira G

Dinis Pinto D

Maracás D

Gilberto Batista D

Kiko D

M. Stjepanović M

N. John M

Manuel Ascenção Bebiano Mendonça M

Rodri Alonso M

Landerson M

A. Duville-Parsemain F

Bench (11)

1 Aranha

19 Tiago Andrade

25 Afonso Assis

99 Maranhão

17 Álvaro Martínez

4 Kevyn Monteiro

10 Kiko Bondoso

28 Chipyoka Songa

79 L. Vonić

32 Janderson

2 Leandro Henrique Sousa Santos

Coach: Vasco Costa

Benfica

4-2-3-1

Samuel Soares G

Daniel Banjaqui D

Tomás Araújo D

C. Lenglet D

S. Dahl D

L. Barreiro M

João Palhinha M

Rafa M

G. Prestianni M

A. Schjelderup M

V. Pavlidis F

Bench (12)

3 A. Circati

5 E. Barrenechea

22 J. Durán

30 C. Echeverri

34 S. El Karouani

72 A. Cabral

13 J. Kamiński

11 D. Lukebakio

16 Manu

10 H. Sudakov

1 A. Trubin

8 F. Aursnes

Coach: Marco Silva

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2

13,88

🔒

Betfair 19,00 BetVictor 17,00 Pinnacle 16,66 10Bet 16,50 Betano 16,50 Dafabet 16,00 1xBet 15,50 Unibet 15,00 Superbet 14,00 Marathonbet 13,50 888Sport 13,00 William Hill 13,00 SBO 12,04 Bet365 12,00

6,98

🔒

1xBet 9,10 Pinnacle 8,70 Dafabet 8,40 Bet365 8,00 Betfair 8,00 Superbet 8,00 Betano 7,90 Marathonbet 7,80 10Bet 7,60 888Sport 7,50 William Hill 7,50 Unibet 7,00 BetVictor 7,00 SBO 6,76

B ✓

1,16

🔒

Betano 1,19 Bet365 1,17 Unibet 1,17 1xBet 1,16 Dafabet 1,16 Pinnacle 1,16 Superbet 1,16 SBO 1,15 888Sport 1,15 Marathonbet 1,15 William Hill 1,15 10Bet 1,14 Betfair 1,13 BetVictor 1,12

Over/under goals

O1,5 ✓

1,12

🔒

Betano 1,15 10Bet 1,14 Superbet 1,14 888Sport 1,13 Pinnacle 1,13 Bet365 1,12 Betfair 1,10 1xBet 1,09 Unibet 1,09 Marathonbet 1,09 BetVictor 1,08

U1,5

5,84

🔒

Betfair 6,50 BetVictor 6,50 Bet365 6,00 Unibet 6,00 Superbet 5,90 Pinnacle 5,84 888Sport 5,75 Betano 5,60 10Bet 5,50 1xBet 5,40 Marathonbet 5,40

O2,5 ✓

1,45

🔒

Betano 1,47 10Bet 1,45 Superbet 1,45 Bet365 1,44 Pinnacle 1,42 BetVictor 1,42 Betfair 1,40 888Sport 1,40 1xBet 1,39 Marathonbet 1,39 Unibet 1,38

U2,5

2,62

🔒

Betfair 2,88 Pinnacle 2,82 Betano 2,80 Superbet 2,77 Unibet 2,75 888Sport 2,75 10Bet 2,70 Bet365 2,70 1xBet 2,61 Marathonbet 2,61 BetVictor 2,59

O3,5 ✓

2,10

🔒

SBO 2,17 1xBet 2,16 Betano 2,15 Superbet 2,12 Pinnacle 2,11 10Bet 2,10 Betfair 2,10 888Sport 2,10 Marathonbet 2,10 BetVictor 2,02 Bet365 2,00 Unibet 1,98

U3,5

1,72

🔒

1xBet 1,76 Betano 1,75 Bet365 1,73 Betfair 1,73 Superbet 1,73 Pinnacle 1,72 Unibet 1,71 Marathonbet 1,71 10Bet 1,70 SBO 1,69 BetVictor 1,68 888Sport 1,67

Both teams to score

BLS ja

2,20

🔒