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Ligue 1
Referee: Jeremy Stinat
Rennes
S T U S S
1–0
Full-time
Marseille
S S S T T
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Rennes Marseille
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,7
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 84%
100%
67%
Both score Ø 67%
100%
33%
Average goals
4,2
3,2
Scored
2,0
1,7
Conceded
2,2
1,5
Goal diff per game
-0,2
+0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Ligue 1 · 3/3 matches
Win Ø 50%
67%
33%
Points per game
2,3
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 84%
100%
67%
Both score Ø 67%
100%
33%
Average goals
4,0
3,7
Scored
2,3
2,0
Conceded
1,7
1,7
Goal diff per game
+0,7
+0,3
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

49% Possession 51%
20 Shots 13
7 Shots on target 5
7 Blocked shots 1
5 Goalkeeper saves 6
3 Corners 5
1 Offside 1
15 Free kicks against 13
1 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Rennes 5. · Marseille 10.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Monaco 3 3 0 0 +4 +1.1 9
2 Lyon 3 2 1 0 +4 -1.0 7
3 Paris FC 3 2 1 0 +4 +3.0 7
4 Lille 3 2 1 0 +3 -0.9 7
5 Rennes 3 2 1 0 +2 -1.2 7
6 Strasbourg 3 2 0 1 +1 -2.8 6
7 Brest 3 1 2 0 +1 +3.9 5
8 Lorient 3 1 1 1 +0 -0.7 4
9 Troyes 3 1 1 1 -3 -0.4 4
10 Marseille 3 1 0 2 +1 +1.4 3
11 Lens 3 1 0 2 +1 +3.7 3
12 Angers 3 1 0 2 -1 +0.5 3
13 Paris SG 3 0 2 1 -1 +1.5 2
14 Le Mans 3 0 2 1 -1 -2.1 2
15 Nice 3 0 2 1 -3 -1.8 2
16 Le Havre 3 0 1 2 -2 -1.8 1
17 Toulouse 3 0 1 2 -3 +0.2 1
18 Auxerre 3 0 0 3 -7 -2.3 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Rennes Marseille
33′
🟨 Himad Abdelli
43′
🟨 Igor Paixão
Przemysław Frankowski 🟨
43′
Mousa Al-Tamari 🔁
↦ Issa Soumaré
45′
Half-time 1–0
1–0 Adrien Thomasson
52′
65′
🔁 Keyliane Abdallah
↦ Angel Gomes
Bryan Reynolds 🔁
↦ Przemysław Frankowski
68′
Boulaye Dia 🔁
↦ Esteban Lepaul
78′
Sebastian Szymański 🔁
↦ Ludovic Blas
78′
78′
🔁 Neal Maupay
↦ Himad Abdelli
85′
🟨 Amine Harit
Eliezer Mayenda 🔁
↦ Mousa Al-Tamari
86′
88′
🔁 Faris Moumbagna
↦ Igor Paixão
88′
🔁 Tadjidine Mmadi
↦ Amine Gouiri
88′
🔁 Derek Cornelius
↦ Nayef Aguerd
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Rennes

4-3-3
30 B. Samba G
95 P. Frankowski D
4 C. Cresswell D
24 A. Rouault D
18 M. Nagida D
45 M. Camara M
21 V. Rongier M
28 A. Thomasson M
10 L. Blas F
9 E. Lepaul F
90 I. Soumaré F
Bench (9)
26 Q. Merlin
14 B. Reynolds
17 S. Szymański
11 Mousa Tamari
48 A. Ait Boudlal
22 B. Dia
65 H. Do Marcolino
16 N. Lemaître
12 Eliezer Mayenda

Coach: F. Haise

Marseille

4-2-3-1
1 J. de Lange G
22 T. Weah D
4 C. Egan-Riley D
21 N. Aguerd D
33 Emerson D
8 H. Abdelli M
23 P. Højbjerg M
77 A. Harit M
7 A. Gomes M
14 Igor Paixão M
9 A. Gouiri F
Bench (9)
13 D. Cornelius
25 U. Garcia
11 N. Maupay
18 B. Meité
43 T. Mmadi
29 F. Moumbagna
92 T. Vermot
48 K. Abdallah
42 Nouhoum Kamissoko

Coach: Bruno Genesio

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
2,09
U
3,81
B
3,07
Over/under goals
O1,5
1,11
U1,5 ✓
5,50
O2,5
1,49
U2,5 ✓
2,52
O3,5
2,18
U3,5 ✓
1,71
Both teams to score
BLS ja
1,44
BLS nei ✓
2,69

Referee

Jeremy Stinat · 13 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,1 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
27,2 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,15 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.