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Premier League

Referee: Michael Oliver

Watford

U T T U T

3–0

Full-time

Liverpool

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Watford Liverpool

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

17%

100%

Points per game

0,8

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,7

2,8

Scored

1,2

2,3

Conceded

1,5

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+1,8

This season — Premier League · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 58%

19%

96%

Points per game

0,9

2,9

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

48%

67%

Both score Ø 49%

41%

56%

Average goals

2,5

3,0

Scored

0,9

2,4

Conceded

1,6

0,6

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+1,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

29% Possession 71%

14 Shots 7

5 Shots on target 1

2 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 5

5 Offside 1

4 Free kicks against 8

0 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Watford 19. · Liverpool 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	27	26	1	0	+47	79
2	Man City	27	18	3	6	+39	57
3	Leicester	28	15	5	8	+26	50
4	Chelsea	28	13	6	9	+8	45
5	Man United	27	11	8	8	+12	41
6	Tottenham	27	11	7	9	+8	40
7	Sheffield United	27	10	10	7	+4	40
8	Wolves	27	9	12	6	+6	39
9	Burnley	28	11	5	12	-6	38
10	Arsenal	27	8	13	6	+3	37
11	Everton	27	10	6	11	-5	36
12	Crystal Palace	28	9	9	10	-7	36
13	Southampton	28	10	4	14	-16	34
14	Newcastle	28	8	8	12	-17	32
15	Brighton	28	6	10	12	-8	28
16	West Ham	28	7	6	15	-14	27
17	Bournemouth	28	7	6	15	-17	27
18	Aston Villa	27	7	4	16	-18	25
19	Watford	27	5	9	13	-19	24
20	Norwich	28	5	6	17	-26	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	14	14	0	0	+27	42
2	Man City	13	9	2	2	+21	29
3	Leicester	14	8	3	3	+11	27
4	Man United	14	7	5	2	+15	26
5	Tottenham	13	8	2	3	+13	26
6	Everton	13	7	3	3	+4	24
7	Arsenal	14	6	5	3	+5	23
8	Burnley	14	7	1	6	+1	22
9	Wolves	14	5	6	3	+4	21
10	Chelsea	14	6	3	5	+3	21
11	Sheffield United	14	6	3	5	+3	21
12	Newcastle	14	5	6	3	+0	21
13	Crystal Palace	14	5	4	5	-2	19
14	Brighton	14	4	6	4	+2	18
15	Bournemouth	14	4	5	5	-4	17
16	Aston Villa	13	5	2	6	-6	17
17	West Ham	14	4	3	7	-3	15
18	Norwich	14	4	3	7	-7	15
19	Watford	13	3	5	5	-4	14
20	Southampton	14	4	2	8	-14	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	13	12	1	0	+20	37
2	Man City	14	9	1	4	+18	28
3	Chelsea	14	7	3	4	+5	24
4	Leicester	14	7	2	5	+15	23
5	Southampton	14	6	2	6	-2	20
6	Sheffield United	13	4	7	2	+1	19
7	Wolves	13	4	6	3	+2	18
8	Crystal Palace	14	4	5	5	-5	17
9	Burnley	14	4	4	6	-7	16
10	Man United	13	4	3	6	-3	15
11	Arsenal	13	2	8	3	-2	14
12	Tottenham	14	3	5	6	-5	14
13	Everton	14	3	3	8	-9	12
14	West Ham	14	3	3	8	-11	12
15	Newcastle	14	3	2	9	-17	11
16	Brighton	14	2	4	8	-10	10
17	Bournemouth	14	3	1	10	-13	10
18	Watford	14	2	4	8	-15	10
19	Aston Villa	14	2	2	10	-12	8
20	Norwich	14	1	3	10	-19	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.