Ligue 1
Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Amiens
Metz
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 0–1
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Paris SG
|
27 | 22 | 2 | 3 | +51 | 68 |
| 2 |
Marseille
|
27 | 16 | 7 | 4 | +12 | 55 |
| 3 |
Rennes
|
26 | 13 | 5 | 8 | +7 | 44 |
| 4 |
Lille
|
26 | 13 | 4 | 9 | +6 | 43 |
| 5 |
Monaco
|
26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | +1 | 39 |
| 6 |
Strasbourg
|
26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | +3 | 38 |
| 7 |
Lyon
|
26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | +14 | 37 |
| 8 |
Reims
|
26 | 9 | 10 | 7 | +4 | 37 |
| 9 |
Montpellier
|
26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | +3 | 37 |
| 10 |
Nice
|
26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | +2 | 37 |
| 11 |
Nantes
|
26 | 11 | 4 | 11 | +0 | 37 |
| 12 |
Bordeaux
|
26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | +6 | 35 |
| 13 |
Brest
|
26 | 8 | 10 | 8 | -1 | 34 |
| 14 |
Angers
|
26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | -8 | 33 |
| 15 |
St Etienne
|
26 | 8 | 5 | 13 | -14 | 29 |
| 16 |
Metz
|
26 | 6 | 10 | 10 | -10 | 28 |
| 17 |
Dijon
|
27 | 6 | 9 | 12 | -11 | 27 |
| 18 |
Nimes
|
27 | 7 | 6 | 14 | -14 | 27 |
| 19 |
Amiens
|
26 | 4 | 10 | 12 | -18 | 22 |
| 20 |
Toulouse
|
26 | 3 | 4 | 19 | -33 | 13 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Strasbourg
Amiens
Amiens
Paris SG
Amiens
Monaco
Lyon
Amiens
Amiens
Toulouse
J Hamel · 72 kamper i vår database
🟥 Red cards: 0,32 per match
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.