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Premier League

Referee: Martin Atkinson

Aston Villa

S T S T U

2–1

Full-time

Watford

U S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Watford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,2

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,3

2,2

Scored

1,0

1,8

Conceded

2,3

0,3

Goal diff per game

-1,3

+1,5

This season — Premier League · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 24%

26%

22%

Points per game

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

70%

43%

Both score Ø 50%

65%

35%

Average goals

3,2

2,3

Scored

1,3

0,9

Conceded

1,9

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

64% Possession 36%

16 Shots 8

5 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 3

0 Offside 3

11 Free kicks against 18

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 18. · Watford 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	22	21	1	0	+38	64
2	Man City	23	15	3	5	+37	48
3	Leicester	23	14	3	6	+25	45
4	Chelsea	23	12	3	8	+9	39
5	Man United	23	9	7	7	+9	34
6	Wolves	23	8	10	5	+4	34
7	Sheffield United	23	8	9	6	+3	33
8	Tottenham	23	8	7	8	+5	31
9	Crystal Palace	23	7	9	7	-4	30
10	Arsenal	23	6	11	6	-2	29
11	Everton	23	8	5	10	-7	29
12	Newcastle	23	8	5	10	-12	29
13	Southampton	23	8	4	11	-13	28
14	Burnley	23	8	3	12	-12	27
15	Brighton	23	6	7	10	-5	25
16	West Ham	22	6	5	11	-8	23
17	Watford	23	5	8	10	-14	23
18	Aston Villa	23	6	4	13	-15	22
19	Bournemouth	23	5	5	13	-16	20
20	Norwich	23	4	5	14	-22	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	12	12	0	0	+22	36
2	Man City	12	8	2	2	+19	26
3	Leicester	11	7	2	2	+9	23
4	Man United	11	6	4	1	+14	22
5	Tottenham	11	6	2	3	+10	20
6	Everton	11	6	2	3	+2	20
7	Newcastle	12	5	4	3	+0	19
8	Burnley	12	6	0	6	-2	18
9	Chelsea	11	5	2	4	+4	17
10	Brighton	12	4	5	3	+3	17
11	Sheffield United	11	5	2	4	+3	17
12	Wolves	11	4	5	2	+2	17
13	Arsenal	12	4	5	3	+0	17
14	Crystal Palace	11	4	4	3	+0	16
15	Watford	12	3	5	4	-3	14
16	Aston Villa	11	4	2	5	-6	14
17	Norwich	12	3	3	6	-7	12
18	West Ham	11	3	2	6	-3	11
19	Southampton	12	3	2	7	-15	11
20	Bournemouth	11	2	4	5	-7	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	10	9	1	0	+16	28
2	Man City	11	7	1	3	+18	22
3	Leicester	12	7	1	4	+16	22
4	Chelsea	12	7	1	4	+5	22
5	Wolves	12	4	5	3	+2	17
6	Southampton	11	5	2	4	+2	17
7	Sheffield United	12	3	7	2	+0	16
8	Crystal Palace	12	3	5	4	-4	14
9	Arsenal	11	2	6	3	-2	12
10	Man United	12	3	3	6	-5	12
11	West Ham	11	3	3	5	-5	12
12	Tottenham	12	2	5	5	-5	11
13	Bournemouth	12	3	1	8	-9	10
14	Newcastle	11	3	1	7	-12	10
15	Everton	12	2	3	7	-9	9
16	Burnley	11	2	3	6	-10	9
17	Watford	11	2	3	6	-11	9
18	Brighton	11	2	2	7	-8	8
19	Aston Villa	12	2	2	8	-9	8
20	Norwich	11	1	2	8	-15	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.