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Premier League

Referee: Andre Marriner

Bournemouth

T S S T T

2–2

Full-time

Chelsea

T U U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bournemouth Chelsea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,8

Scored

1,0

1,5

Conceded

1,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,2

This season — Premier League · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 37%

26%

48%

Points per game

1,0

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

59%

Both score Ø 56%

52%

59%

Average goals

2,6

3,0

Scored

1,0

1,7

Conceded

1,6

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,6

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

26% Possession 74%

9 Shots 23

5 Shots on target 6

1 Blocked shots 5

5 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 14

1 Offside 2

8 Free kicks against 5

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bournemouth 16. · Chelsea 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	27	26	1	0	+47	79
2	Man City	27	18	3	6	+39	57
3	Leicester	28	15	5	8	+26	50
4	Chelsea	27	13	5	9	+8	44
5	Man United	27	11	8	8	+12	41
6	Tottenham	27	11	7	9	+8	40
7	Sheffield United	27	10	10	7	+4	40
8	Wolves	27	9	12	6	+6	39
9	Arsenal	27	8	13	6	+3	37
10	Burnley	27	11	4	12	-6	37
11	Everton	27	10	6	11	-5	36
12	Crystal Palace	28	9	9	10	-7	36
13	Southampton	27	10	4	13	-14	34
14	Newcastle	27	8	7	12	-17	31
15	Brighton	28	6	10	12	-8	28
16	Bournemouth	27	7	5	15	-17	26
17	Aston Villa	27	7	4	16	-18	25
18	West Ham	27	6	6	15	-16	24
19	Watford	27	5	9	13	-19	24
20	Norwich	28	5	6	17	-26	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	14	14	0	0	+27	42
2	Man City	13	9	2	2	+21	29
3	Leicester	14	8	3	3	+11	27
4	Man United	14	7	5	2	+15	26
5	Tottenham	13	8	2	3	+13	26
6	Everton	13	7	3	3	+4	24
7	Arsenal	14	6	5	3	+5	23
8	Burnley	14	7	1	6	+1	22
9	Wolves	14	5	6	3	+4	21
10	Chelsea	14	6	3	5	+3	21
11	Sheffield United	14	6	3	5	+3	21
12	Newcastle	13	5	5	3	+0	20
13	Crystal Palace	14	5	4	5	-2	19
14	Brighton	14	4	6	4	+2	18
15	Aston Villa	13	5	2	6	-6	17
16	Bournemouth	13	4	4	5	-4	16
17	Norwich	14	4	3	7	-7	15
18	Watford	13	3	5	5	-4	14
19	Southampton	14	4	2	8	-14	14
20	West Ham	13	3	3	7	-5	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	13	12	1	0	+20	37
2	Man City	14	9	1	4	+18	28
3	Leicester	14	7	2	5	+15	23
4	Chelsea	13	7	2	4	+5	23
5	Southampton	13	6	2	5	+0	20
6	Sheffield United	13	4	7	2	+1	19
7	Wolves	13	4	6	3	+2	18
8	Crystal Palace	14	4	5	5	-5	17
9	Man United	13	4	3	6	-3	15
10	Burnley	13	4	3	6	-7	15
11	Arsenal	13	2	8	3	-2	14
12	Tottenham	14	3	5	6	-5	14
13	Everton	14	3	3	8	-9	12
14	West Ham	14	3	3	8	-11	12
15	Newcastle	14	3	2	9	-17	11
16	Brighton	14	2	4	8	-10	10
17	Bournemouth	14	3	1	10	-13	10
18	Watford	14	2	4	8	-15	10
19	Aston Villa	14	2	2	10	-12	8
20	Norwich	14	1	3	10	-19	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.