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Primeira Liga

Referee: Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo

Estoril

T T U T S

4–1

Full-time

Alverca

U S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Estoril Alverca

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

3,7

1,8

Scored

1,5

0,7

Conceded

2,2

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 30%

27%

33%

Points per game

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

53%

Both score Ø 47%

53%

40%

Average goals

3,2

2,5

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

1,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,1

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

1,30 xG 0,75

64% Possession 36%

9 Shots 12

4 Shots on target 7

2 Blocked shots 0

6 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 7

2 Offside 0

12 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Estoril 10. · Alverca 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	15	14	1	0	+29	+20.0	43
2	Sp Lisbon	15	12	2	1	+34	+24.8	38
3	Benfica	15	10	5	0	+23	+17.6	35
4	Gil Vicente	15	7	5	3	+10	+4.8	26
5	Sp Braga	15	7	4	4	+13	+10.5	25
6	Famalicao	16	6	5	5	+7	+7.4	23
7	Moreirense	15	6	3	6	-3	-6.4	21
8	Guimaraes	15	6	3	6	-5	-3.9	21
9	Estrela	16	4	6	6	-4	-3.1	18
10	Estoril	15	4	5	6	-2	-3.8	17
11	Rio Ave	15	3	8	4	-5	-9.9	17
12	Alverca	15	5	2	8	-8	-1.7	17
13	Nacional	15	4	4	7	-4	-7.8	16
14	Santa Clara	15	4	4	7	-4	+2.6	16
15	Casa Pia	15	3	4	8	-13	-12.9	13
16	Arouca	15	3	4	8	-22	-18.6	13
17	Tondela	15	2	3	10	-18	-6.4	9
18	AVS	15	0	4	11	-28	-13.3	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	7	6	1	0	+12	+9.9	19
2	Sp Lisbon	7	5	1	1	+20	+13.4	16
3	Benfica	8	4	4	0	+10	+11.3	16
4	Sp Braga	7	4	1	2	+7	+6.4	13
5	Gil Vicente	7	4	1	2	+4	+3.6	13
6	Moreirense	7	4	1	2	+1	-1.6	13
7	Estoril	8	3	3	2	+2	-1.0	12
8	Guimaraes	8	3	3	2	+0	-1.4	12
9	Famalicao	9	3	2	4	+5	+3.5	11
10	Santa Clara	8	3	2	3	+1	+4.8	11
11	Alverca	8	3	1	4	-7	+2.3	10
12	Estrela	8	2	3	3	+1	+4.8	9
13	Arouca	8	2	2	4	-9	-7.5	8
14	Nacional	7	2	0	5	-5	-4.1	6
15	Rio Ave	7	1	3	3	-5	-4.4	6
16	Casa Pia	7	0	3	4	-8	-7.3	3
17	AVS	8	0	3	5	-9	-4.9	3
18	Tondela	7	0	2	5	-8	-3.2	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	8	8	0	0	+17	+10.1	24
2	Sp Lisbon	8	7	1	0	+14	+11.3	22
3	Benfica	7	6	1	0	+13	+6.3	19
4	Gil Vicente	8	3	4	1	+6	+1.2	13
5	Sp Braga	8	3	3	2	+6	+4.1	12
6	Famalicao	7	3	3	1	+2	+3.9	12
7	Rio Ave	8	2	5	1	+0	-5.5	11
8	Nacional	8	2	4	2	+1	-3.7	10
9	Casa Pia	8	3	1	4	-5	-5.6	10
10	Estrela	8	2	3	3	-5	-7.8	9
11	Guimaraes	7	3	0	4	-5	-2.5	9
12	Moreirense	8	2	2	4	-4	-4.8	8
13	Alverca	7	2	1	4	-1	-3.9	7
14	Tondela	8	2	1	5	-10	-3.2	7
15	Estoril	7	1	2	4	-4	-2.9	5
16	Santa Clara	7	1	2	4	-5	-2.2	5
17	Arouca	7	1	2	4	-13	-11.1	5
18	AVS	7	0	1	6	-19	-8.4	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.