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Champions League
Referee: M Mariani
Liverpool
S T T T S
0–2
Full-time
Paris SG
S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Liverpool Paris SG
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 58%
33%
83%
Points per game
1,2
2,5
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
50%
83%
Both score Ø 42%
33%
50%
Average goals
2,8
4,0
Scored
1,3
3,0
Conceded
1,5
1,0
Goal diff per game
-0,2
+2,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 11/13 matches
Win Ø 63%
64%
62%
Points per game
1,9
2,1
Over 2.5 Ø 66%
55%
77%
Both score Ø 48%
27%
69%
Average goals
3,2
4,1
Scored
2,2
2,8
Conceded
1,0
1,3
Goal diff per game
+1,2
+1,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,94 xG 1,25
53% Possession 47%
21 Shots 12
5 Shots on target 6
7 Blocked shots 4
3 Goalkeeper saves 6
8 Corners 2
4 Offside 4
9 Free kicks against 10
2 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

8. Apr -26 Paris SG – Liverpool 2–0 11. Mar -25 Liverpool – Paris SG 0–1 5. Mar -25 Paris SG – Liverpool 0–1

Match report

Liverpool Paris SG
M. Salah 🔁
↦ H. Ekitike
31′
38′
🔁 L. Hernandez
↦ N. Mendes
Half-time 0–0
Alexis Mac Allister 🟨
46′
C. Gakpo 🔁
↦ A. Isak
46′
J. Gomez 🔁
↦ J. Frimpong
46′
52′
🔁 B. Barcola
↦ D. Doue
Alexis Mac Allister ℹ️
VAR: Penalty cancelled
65′
R. Ngumoha 🔁
↦
67′
72′
⚽ O. Dembele 0–1
K. Kvaratskhelia
C. Jones 🔁
↦ A. Mac Allister
74′
81′
🔁 L. Beraldo
↦ W. Zaire-Emery
Ibrahima Konaté 🟨
85′
90′
⚽ O. Dembele 0–2
B. Barcola
Full-time 0–2

Line-ups

Liverpool

4-2-3-1
25 G. Mamardashvili G
30 J. Frimpong D
5 I. Konate D
4 V. van Dijk D
6 M. Kerkez D
38 R. Gravenberch M
8 D. Szoboszlai M
22 H. Ekitike M
10 A. Mac Allister M
7 F. Wirtz M
9 A. Isak F
Bench (11)
74 K. Misciur
28 F. Woodman
11 M. Salah
14 F. Chiesa
18 C. Gakpo
17 C. Jones
65 A. Nallo
26 A. Robertson
2 J. Gomez
42 T. Nyoni
73 R. Ngumoha

Coach: Arne Slot

Paris SG

4-3-3
39 M. Safonov G
2 A. Hakimi D
5 Marquinhos D
51 W. Pacho D
25 N. Mendes D
87 J. Neves M
17 Vitinha M
33 W. Zaire-Emery M
14 D. Doue F
10 O. Dembele F
7 K. Kvaratskhelia F
Bench (11)
30 L. Chevalier
89 R. Marin
9 G. Ramos
24 S. Mayulu
27 D. Fernandez
21 L. Hernandez
19 Lee Kang-In
6 I. Zabarnyi
29 B. Barcola
4 L. Beraldo
49 I. Mbaye

Coach: Enrique Luis

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

M Mariani · 156 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,3 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
25,7 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,23 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.