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Champions League
Referee: F Letexier
Barcelona
S S S U S
7–2
Full-time
Newcastle
T S T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Barcelona Newcastle
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
83%
50%
Points per game
2,7
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 67%
50%
83%
Average goals
3,5
3,3
Scored
2,8
1,7
Conceded
0,7
1,7
Goal diff per game
+2,2
+0,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 9/11 matches
Win Ø 56%
56%
55%
Points per game
1,9
1,9
Over 2.5 Ø 81%
89%
73%
Both score Ø 77%
89%
64%
Average goals
4,2
3,5
Scored
2,6
2,5
Conceded
1,7
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,9
+1,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–2

4,29 xG 1,52
63% Possession 37%
18 Shots 8
13 Shots on target 5
3 Blocked shots 1
3 Goalkeeper saves 6
6 Corners 2
2 Offside 2
9 Free kicks against 13
1 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

10. Mar -26 Newcastle – Barcelona 1–1 18. Sep -25 Newcastle – Barcelona 1–2

Match report

Barcelona Newcastle
1–0 Raphinha ⚽
Fermin
6′
15′
⚽ A. Elanga 1–1
L. Hall
17′
🟨 Joelinton
2–1 M. Bernal ⚽
G. Martin
18′
R. Araujo 🔁
↦ E. Garcia
22′
28′
⚽ A. Elanga 2–2
H. Barnes
Pau Cubarsí 🟨
44′
3–2 Lamine Yamal ⚽
45′
Half-time 3–2
46′
🔁 V. Livramento
↦ K. Trippier
Raphinha ℹ️
VAR: Penalty confirmed
49′
50′
🟨 Kieran Trippier
4–2 Fermin ⚽
Raphinha
51′
55′
🔁 J. Willock
↦ S. Tonali
5–2 R. Lewandowski ⚽
Raphinha
56′
60′
🟨 Joe Willock
6–2 R. Lewandowski ⚽
Lamine Yamal
61′
64′
🔁 S. Botman
↦ Joelinton
64′
🔁 J. Murphy
↦ A. Elanga
F. Torres 🔁
↦ R. Lewandowski
66′
X. Espart 🔁
↦ J. Cancelo
66′
D. Olmo 🔁
↦ Fermín
67′
7–2 Raphinha ⚽
72′
81′
🔁 W. Osula
↦ A. Gordon
W. Szczesny 🔁
↦ J. Garcia
82′
Full-time 7–2

Line-ups

Barcelona

4-2-3-1
13 J. Garcia G
24 E. Garcia D
5 P. Cubarsi D
18 G. Martin D
2 J. Cancelo D
22 M. Bernal M
8 Pedri M
10 Lamine Yamal M
16 Fermín M
11 Raphinha M
9 R. Lewandowski F
Bench (12)
25 W. Szczesny
31 D. Kochen
7 F. Torres
4 R. Araujo
6 Gavi
28 R. Bardghji
36 A. Cortes
20 D. Olmo
14 M. Rashford
17 M. Casado
43 T. Marques
42 X. Espart

Coach: Hansi Flick

Newcastle

4-3-3
32 A. Ramsdale G
2 K. Trippier D
12 M. Thiaw D
33 D. Burn D
3 L. Hall D
41 J. Ramsey M
7 Joelinton M
8 S. Tonali M
20 A. Elanga F
10 A. Gordon F
11 H. Barnes F
Bench (12)
26 J. Ruddy
58 A. Harris
1 N. Pope
28 J. Willock
9 Y. Wissa
4 S. Botman
27 N. Woltemade
23 J. Murphy
21 V. Livramento
18 W. Osula
37 A. Murphy
62 S. Neave

Coach: Eddie Howe

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

F Letexier · 176 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,0 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
23,3 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,25 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.