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Champions League
Referee: D Orsato
Barcelona
T S T S U
2–1
Full-time
Porto
S T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Barcelona Porto
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
50%
83%
Points per game
1,7
2,5
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
67%
33%
Average goals
2,2
2,8
Scored
1,2
2,3
Conceded
1,0
0,5
Goal diff per game
+0,2
+1,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 4/4 matches
Win Ø 75%
75%
75%
Points per game
2,3
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 38%
25%
50%
Average goals
2,5
3,0
Scored
2,0
2,3
Conceded
0,5
0,8
Goal diff per game
+1,5
+1,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,89 xG 1,16
55% Possession 45%
21 Shots 13
7 Shots on target 5
6 Blocked shots 5
4 Goalkeeper saves 5
5 Corners 3
1 Offside 4
11 Free kicks against 21
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

4. Oct -23 Porto – Barcelona 0–1

Match report

Barcelona Porto
30′
⚽ Pepê Aquino 0–1
1–1 João Cancelo ⚽
Pedri
32′
36′
🟨 Fábio Cardoso
Frenkie de Jong 🟨
37′
Half-time 1–1
57′
🟨 João Mário
2–1 João Félix ⚽
João Cancelo
57′
João Félix 🟨
59′
67′
🔁 J. Sánchez
↦ João Mário
74′
🟨 Pepê
Ferran Torres 🔁
↦ João Félix
75′
81′
🔁 Nico González
↦ S. Eustáquio
81′
🔁 Francisco Conceição
↦ Evanilson
Alejandro Balde 🔁
↦ João Cancelo
82′
Lamine Yamal 🔁
↦ Raphinha
90′
90′
🔁 D. Namaso
↦ Fábio Cardoso
90′
🔁 Toni Martínez
↦ Galeno
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Barcelona

4-3-3
13 Iñaki Peña G
4 R. Araujo D
23 J. Koundé D
5 Iñigo Martínez D
2 João Cancelo D
8 Pedri M
22 İ. Gündoğan M
21 F. de Jong M
11 Raphinha F
9 R. Lewandowski F
14 João Félix F
Bench (11)
7 Ferran Torres
3 Alejandro Balde
27 Lamine Yamal
31 D. Kochen
15 A. Christensen
17 Marcos Alonso
26 Ander Astralaga
20 Sergi Roberto
18 Oriol Romeu
32 Fermín
30 Marc Casadó

Coach: Xavi

Porto

4-4-2
99 Diogo Costa G
23 João Mário D
3 Pepe D
2 Fábio Cardoso D
12 Z. Sanusi D
11 Pepê Aquino M
6 S. Eustáquio M
22 A. Varela M
13 Galeno M
30 Evanilson F
9 M. Taremi F
Bench (12)
15 J. Sánchez
16 Nico González
10 Francisco Conceição
19 D. Namaso
29 Toni Martínez
70 Gonçalo Borges
14 Cláudio Ramos
20 André Franco
21 Fran Navarro
8 M. Grujić
28 Romário Baró
17 Iván Jaime

Coach: Sérgio Conceição

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

D Orsato · 98 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,8 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
24,7 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,17 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.