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Bundesliga

Referee: D Muckenhammer

Salzburg

S S S U S

1–0

Full-time

Sturm Graz

S U U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Salzburg Sturm Graz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,7

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,8

3,3

Scored

2,5

2,2

Conceded

0,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

+2,2

+1,0

This season — Bundesliga · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 61%

77%

45%

Points per game

2,5

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 69%

55%

82%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

68%

Average goals

2,9

3,5

Scored

2,3

2,1

Conceded

0,6

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,7

+0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

60% Possession 40%

14 Shots 14

4 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 8

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 7

3 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 6

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Salzburg 1. · Sturm Graz 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Salzburg	22	17	4	1	+37	55
2	Sturm Graz	22	10	7	5	+14	37
3	Wolfsberger AC	23	11	4	8	+1	37
4	Austria Vienna	23	9	9	5	+9	36
5	SK Rapid	23	9	7	7	+6	34
6	A. Klagenfurt	23	7	9	7	-4	30
7	Ried	23	7	8	8	-12	29
8	LASK	23	7	7	9	+5	28
9	Admira	23	5	8	10	-4	23
10	Hartberg	23	5	8	10	-6	23
11	Tirol	23	5	8	10	-18	23
12	Altach	23	3	5	15	-28	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Salzburg	11	10	1	0	+28	31
2	Ried	11	6	5	0	+6	23
3	Wolfsberger AC	11	7	1	3	+6	22
4	Austria Vienna	12	5	5	2	+6	20
5	Sturm Graz	11	5	4	2	+7	19
6	SK Rapid	11	6	1	4	+7	19
7	A. Klagenfurt	12	4	6	2	+0	18
8	LASK	12	4	4	4	+6	16
9	Tirol	11	2	6	3	+1	12
10	Admira	12	3	2	7	-1	11
11	Hartberg	11	2	4	5	-4	10
12	Altach	12	1	3	8	-15	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Salzburg	11	7	3	1	+9	24
2	Sturm Graz	11	5	3	3	+7	18
3	Austria Vienna	11	4	4	3	+3	16
4	SK Rapid	12	3	6	3	-1	15
5	Wolfsberger AC	12	4	3	5	-5	15
6	Hartberg	12	3	4	5	-2	13
7	LASK	11	3	3	5	-1	12
8	Admira	11	2	6	3	-3	12
9	A. Klagenfurt	11	3	3	5	-4	12
10	Tirol	12	3	2	7	-19	11
11	Altach	11	2	2	7	-13	8
12	Ried	12	1	3	8	-18	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.