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Primeira Liga

Referee: Rui Manuel Gomes Costa

Arouca

U U T S T

1–0

Full-time

Pacos Ferreira

S T U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arouca Pacos Ferreira

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

2,0

3,0

Scored

0,5

1,5

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,0

This season — Primeira Liga · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 20%

20%

Points per game

0,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

30%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

30%

70%

Average goals

2,1

2,9

Scored

0,6

1,3

Conceded

1,5

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,9

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

53% Possession 47%

6 Shots 10

2 Shots on target 1

1 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

5 Corners 4

3 Offside 2

24 Free kicks against 23

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arouca 17. · Pacos Ferreira 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	10	8	2	0	+18	26
2	Sp Lisbon	11	7	3	1	+11	24
3	Porto	11	6	4	1	+14	22
4	Guimaraes	10	6	2	2	+7	20
5	Sp Braga	10	6	2	2	+6	20
6	Chaves	11	3	6	2	+1	15
7	Rio Ave	11	4	2	5	-3	14
8	Estoril	11	4	2	5	-3	14
9	Maritimo	11	4	2	5	-3	14
10	Vitoria Setubal	11	3	4	4	-1	13
11	Boavista	11	3	4	4	-2	13
12	Belenenses	11	3	4	4	-4	13
13	Feirense	10	3	2	5	-8	11
14	Pacos Ferreira	10	2	4	4	-3	10
15	Moreirense	10	2	2	6	-6	8
16	Nacional	11	2	2	7	-7	8
17	Arouca	10	2	2	6	-9	8
18	Tondela	10	1	3	6	-8	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	6	5	1	0	+11	16
2	Porto	5	4	1	0	+9	13
3	Sp Braga	5	4	1	0	+6	13
4	Benfica	4	3	1	0	+9	10
5	Guimaraes	5	2	2	1	+2	8
6	Boavista	6	2	2	2	+2	8
7	Arouca	5	2	1	2	+1	7
8	Chaves	6	1	4	1	+0	7
9	Maritimo	5	2	1	2	+0	7
10	Vitoria Setubal	6	2	1	3	-1	7
11	Pacos Ferreira	5	1	3	1	+0	6
12	Belenenses	5	1	3	1	-1	6
13	Estoril	5	2	0	3	-2	6
14	Rio Ave	6	2	0	4	-4	6
15	Tondela	5	1	1	3	-3	4
16	Nacional	6	1	1	4	-6	4
17	Feirense	5	1	1	3	-6	4
18	Moreirense	5	0	2	3	-3	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	6	5	1	0	+9	16
2	Guimaraes	5	4	0	1	+5	12
3	Porto	6	2	3	1	+5	9
4	Rio Ave	5	2	2	1	+1	8
5	Chaves	5	2	2	1	+1	8
6	Sp Lisbon	5	2	2	1	+0	8
7	Estoril	6	2	2	2	-1	8
8	Sp Braga	5	2	1	2	+0	7
9	Feirense	5	2	1	2	-2	7
10	Belenenses	6	2	1	3	-3	7
11	Maritimo	6	2	1	3	-3	7
12	Vitoria Setubal	5	1	3	1	+0	6
13	Moreirense	5	2	0	3	-3	6
14	Boavista	5	1	2	2	-4	5
15	Nacional	5	1	1	3	-1	4
16	Pacos Ferreira	5	1	1	3	-3	4
17	Tondela	5	0	2	3	-5	2
18	Arouca	5	0	1	4	-10	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.