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Primeira Liga

Referee: Bruno Miguel Duarte Paixao

Arouca

U S U T T

2–2

Full-time

Pacos Ferreira

U S S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arouca Pacos Ferreira

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 83%

83%

Average goals

3,5

2,8

Scored

1,8

1,5

Conceded

1,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 34%

26%

42%

Points per game

1,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

47%

42%

Both score Ø 55%

63%

47%

Average goals

2,5

2,6

Scored

1,3

1,4

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

52% Possession 48%

8 Shots 4

4 Shots on target 2

0 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 3

5 Offside 0

8 Free kicks against 26

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Arouca 9. · Pacos Ferreira 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	20	16	3	1	+29	51
2	Benfica	19	15	1	3	+37	46
3	Porto	20	14	4	2	+28	46
4	Sp Braga	19	10	5	4	+19	35
5	Guimaraes	20	8	6	6	-1	30
6	Pacos Ferreira	19	8	5	6	+5	29
7	Rio Ave	19	7	4	8	-3	25
8	Vitoria Setubal	19	6	7	6	-5	25
9	Arouca	19	5	9	5	+0	24
10	Estoril	20	6	5	9	-6	23
11	U. Madeira	20	6	5	9	-10	23
12	Belenenses	19	5	7	7	-15	22
13	Maritimo	19	6	3	10	-11	21
14	Moreirense	19	5	5	9	-9	20
15	Nacional	19	4	5	10	-10	17
16	Academica	20	4	5	11	-17	17
17	Boavista	19	4	4	11	-13	16
18	Tondela	19	2	3	14	-18	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	10	9	0	1	+26	27
2	Porto	10	8	2	0	+16	26
3	Sp Lisbon	10	8	2	0	+13	26
4	Sp Braga	9	6	2	1	+18	20
5	Rio Ave	10	6	0	4	+3	18
6	U. Madeira	10	5	3	2	+3	18
7	Pacos Ferreira	10	5	2	3	+6	17
8	Belenenses	9	4	4	1	+2	16
9	Guimaraes	11	4	3	4	+2	15
10	Estoril	10	4	3	3	+2	15
11	Academica	10	4	3	3	-3	15
12	Maritimo	9	4	2	3	+5	14
13	Arouca	9	4	2	3	+2	14
14	Nacional	9	3	3	3	+0	12
15	Vitoria Setubal	10	2	6	2	-6	12
16	Moreirense	9	2	3	4	-3	9
17	Boavista	9	2	2	5	-6	8
18	Tondela	10	1	1	8	-12	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	10	8	1	1	+16	25
2	Porto	10	6	2	2	+12	20
3	Benfica	9	6	1	2	+11	19
4	Sp Braga	10	4	3	3	+1	15
5	Guimaraes	9	4	3	2	-3	15
6	Vitoria Setubal	9	4	1	4	+1	13
7	Pacos Ferreira	9	3	3	3	-1	12
8	Moreirense	10	3	2	5	-6	11
9	Arouca	10	1	7	2	-2	10
10	Boavista	10	2	2	6	-7	8
11	Estoril	10	2	2	6	-8	8
12	Rio Ave	9	1	4	4	-6	7
13	Maritimo	10	2	1	7	-16	7
14	Belenenses	10	1	3	6	-17	6
15	Tondela	9	1	2	6	-6	5
16	Nacional	10	1	2	7	-10	5
17	U. Madeira	10	1	2	7	-13	5
18	Academica	10	0	2	8	-14	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.