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Primeira Liga

Referee: Joao Pedro Pinheiro

Estoril

T S U T T

3–0

Full-time

Tondela

T S U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Estoril Tondela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,2

2,5

Scored

1,2

Conceded

2,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 18/19 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

32%

Points per game

0,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

61%

42%

Both score Ø 46%

39%

53%

Average goals

2,9

2,7

Scored

0,8

1,2

Conceded

2,1

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,3

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

55% Possession 45%

12 Shots 8

4 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

1 Corners 4

0 Offside 7

19 Free kicks against 16

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Estoril 18. · Tondela 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	18	15	3	0	+37	48
2	Benfica	20	14	5	1	+34	47
3	Sp Lisbon	19	14	5	0	+31	47
4	Sp Braga	19	13	1	5	+18	40
5	Rio Ave	20	10	3	7	+6	33
6	Maritimo	19	8	5	6	-3	29
7	Chaves	19	7	5	7	-4	26
8	Guimaraes	19	8	2	9	-7	26
9	Boavista	19	7	3	9	-4	24
10	Tondela	19	6	4	9	-6	22
11	Portimonense	20	5	6	9	-4	21
12	Belenenses	20	5	6	9	-9	21
13	Pacos Ferreira	20	5	6	9	-12	21
14	Feirense	20	6	2	12	-8	20
15	Moreirense	19	3	6	10	-15	15
16	Aves	19	3	5	11	-15	14
17	Vitoria Setubal	19	2	8	9	-16	14
18	Estoril	18	3	3	12	-23	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	10	9	1	0	+25	28
2	Sp Lisbon	10	8	2	0	+19	26
3	Benfica	9	8	1	0	+22	25
4	Sp Braga	10	8	0	2	+16	24
5	Maritimo	10	6	3	1	+6	21
6	Rio Ave	10	6	1	3	+6	19
7	Portimonense	10	5	2	3	+7	17
8	Belenenses	10	4	4	2	+4	16
9	Pacos Ferreira	10	4	4	2	+2	16
10	Guimaraes	9	5	1	3	-2	16
11	Boavista	9	5	0	4	-2	15
12	Chaves	9	3	4	2	+3	13
13	Feirense	10	4	1	5	-3	13
14	Vitoria Setubal	10	2	5	3	-3	11
15	Tondela	10	3	2	5	-4	11
16	Moreirense	9	1	5	3	-5	8
17	Estoril	8	2	1	5	-7	7
18	Aves	10	1	2	7	-11	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	11	6	4	1	+12	22
2	Sp Lisbon	9	6	3	0	+12	21
3	Porto	8	6	2	0	+12	20
4	Sp Braga	9	5	1	3	+2	16
5	Rio Ave	10	4	2	4	+0	14
6	Chaves	10	4	1	5	-7	13
7	Tondela	9	3	2	4	-2	11
8	Guimaraes	10	3	1	6	-5	10
9	Boavista	10	2	3	5	-2	9
10	Aves	9	2	3	4	-4	9
11	Maritimo	9	2	2	5	-9	8
12	Feirense	10	2	1	7	-5	7
13	Moreirense	10	2	1	7	-10	7
14	Belenenses	10	1	2	7	-13	5
15	Pacos Ferreira	10	1	2	7	-14	5
16	Estoril	10	1	2	7	-16	5
17	Portimonense	10	0	4	6	-11	4
18	Vitoria Setubal	9	0	3	6	-13	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.