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Primeira Liga

Referee: Manuel Oliveira

Sp Lisbon

T S U S T

2–0

Full-time

Aves

S T U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Lisbon Aves

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,2

2,7

Scored

1,2

0,7

Conceded

1,0

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-1,3

This season — Primeira Liga · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 36%

54%

17%

Points per game

1,8

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

54%

58%

Both score Ø 59%

63%

54%

Average goals

2,7

2,9

Scored

1,6

1,0

Conceded

1,1

1,9

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

83% Possession 17%

22 Shots 3

5 Shots on target 3

8 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

14 Corners 0

3 Offside 1

16 Free kicks against 7

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 2

The table before the match Sp Lisbon 4. · Aves 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	26	21	3	2	+42	66
2	Benfica	26	20	3	3	+39	63
3	Sp Braga	26	15	4	7	+16	49
4	Sp Lisbon	24	13	3	8	+11	42
5	Rio Ave	25	11	8	6	+10	41
6	Famalicao	25	11	7	7	+1	40
7	Guimaraes	24	9	8	7	+14	35
8	Gil Vicente	26	8	10	8	-3	34
9	Moreirense	26	7	11	8	+2	32
10	Santa Clara	25	8	7	10	-7	31
11	Boavista	25	7	8	10	-5	29
12	Setubal	24	6	10	8	-10	28
13	Vitoria Setubal	24	6	10	8	-10	28
14	Tondela	26	6	8	12	-13	26
15	Belenenses	25	7	5	13	-20	26
16	Maritimo	25	5	10	10	-10	25
17	Pacos Ferreira	24	6	4	14	-16	22
18	Portimonense	26	2	12	12	-18	18
19	Aves	24	4	1	19	-23	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	13	11	1	1	+24	34
2	Benfica	13	10	1	2	+22	31
3	Sp Braga	13	8	3	2	+9	27
4	Famalicao	13	7	3	3	+5	24
5	Moreirense	13	6	4	3	+5	22
6	Sp Lisbon	11	7	0	4	+5	21
7	Guimaraes	12	6	2	4	+10	20
8	Rio Ave	13	5	5	3	+5	20
9	Gil Vicente	13	4	7	2	+2	19
10	Setubal	12	3	6	3	-4	15
11	Vitoria Setubal	12	3	6	3	-4	15
12	Santa Clara	13	4	3	6	-6	15
13	Maritimo	12	3	5	4	+0	14
14	Pacos Ferreira	13	4	2	7	-4	14
15	Belenenses	13	4	2	7	-11	14
16	Boavista	12	3	4	5	-2	13
17	Portimonense	12	1	7	4	-4	10
18	Aves	12	3	0	9	-8	9
19	Tondela	13	1	5	7	-11	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	13	10	2	1	+18	32
2	Benfica	13	10	2	1	+17	32
3	Sp Braga	13	7	1	5	+7	22
4	Sp Lisbon	13	6	3	4	+6	21
5	Rio Ave	12	6	3	3	+5	21
6	Tondela	13	5	3	5	-2	18
7	Santa Clara	12	4	4	4	-1	16
8	Boavista	13	4	4	5	-3	16
9	Famalicao	12	4	4	4	-4	16
10	Guimaraes	12	3	6	3	+4	15
11	Gil Vicente	13	4	3	6	-5	15
12	Setubal	12	3	4	5	-6	13
13	Vitoria Setubal	12	3	4	5	-6	13
14	Belenenses	12	3	3	6	-9	12
15	Maritimo	13	2	5	6	-10	11
16	Moreirense	13	1	7	5	-3	10
17	Pacos Ferreira	11	2	2	7	-12	8
18	Portimonense	14	1	5	8	-14	8
19	Aves	12	1	1	10	-15	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.