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Primeira Liga

Referee: João Pedro Pinheiro

Aves

T S T U T

1–3

Full-time

Pacos Ferreira

T T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aves Pacos Ferreira

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,5

2,0

Scored

1,0

0,5

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-1,0

This season — Primeira Liga · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 20%

17%

22%

Points per game

0,6

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

57%

39%

Both score Ø 44%

52%

35%

Average goals

2,8

2,2

Scored

1,0

0,7

Conceded

1,9

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,9

-0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

62% Possession 38%

10 Shots 10

3 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

7 Corners 7

0 Offside 2

11 Free kicks against 23

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aves 19. · Pacos Ferreira 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	24	20	2	2	+40	62
2	Benfica	23	20	0	3	+39	60
3	Sp Braga	24	13	4	7	+13	43
4	Sp Lisbon	23	13	3	7	+13	42
5	Rio Ave	24	11	7	6	+10	40
6	Famalicao	23	10	6	7	-1	36
7	Gil Vicente	25	8	9	8	-3	33
8	Guimaraes	23	8	8	7	+12	32
9	Santa Clara	23	8	6	9	-5	30
10	Moreirense	24	6	10	8	+0	28
11	Boavista	24	7	7	10	-5	28
12	Setubal	23	6	9	8	-10	27
13	Vitoria Setubal	23	6	9	8	-10	27
14	Maritimo	23	5	10	8	-7	25
15	Tondela	24	6	7	11	-11	25
16	Belenenses	24	7	4	13	-20	25
17	Pacos Ferreira	23	5	4	14	-18	19
18	Portimonense	25	2	12	11	-16	18
19	Aves	23	4	1	18	-21	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	12	11	0	1	+24	33
2	Benfica	12	10	0	2	+22	30
3	Sp Braga	12	7	3	2	+7	24
4	Sp Lisbon	11	7	0	4	+5	21
5	Famalicao	12	6	3	3	+3	21
6	Rio Ave	13	5	5	3	+5	20
7	Moreirense	12	5	4	3	+3	19
8	Gil Vicente	12	4	6	2	+2	18
9	Guimaraes	11	5	2	4	+8	17
10	Santa Clara	12	4	3	5	-4	15
11	Maritimo	11	3	5	3	+1	14
12	Pacos Ferreira	13	4	2	7	-4	14
13	Setubal	11	3	5	3	-4	14
14	Vitoria Setubal	11	3	5	3	-4	14
15	Boavista	12	3	4	5	-2	13
16	Belenenses	12	4	1	7	-11	13
17	Portimonense	12	1	7	4	-4	10
18	Aves	11	3	0	8	-6	9
19	Tondela	12	1	4	7	-11	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	11	10	0	1	+17	30
2	Porto	12	9	2	1	+16	29
3	Sp Lisbon	12	6	3	3	+8	21
4	Rio Ave	11	6	2	3	+5	20
5	Sp Braga	12	6	1	5	+6	19
6	Tondela	12	5	3	4	+0	18
7	Guimaraes	12	3	6	3	+4	15
8	Santa Clara	11	4	3	4	-1	15
9	Boavista	12	4	3	5	-3	15
10	Famalicao	11	4	3	4	-4	15
11	Gil Vicente	13	4	3	6	-5	15
12	Setubal	12	3	4	5	-6	13
13	Vitoria Setubal	12	3	4	5	-6	13
14	Belenenses	12	3	3	6	-9	12
15	Maritimo	12	2	5	5	-8	11
16	Moreirense	12	1	6	5	-3	9
17	Portimonense	13	1	5	7	-12	8
18	Pacos Ferreira	10	1	2	7	-14	5
19	Aves	12	1	1	10	-15	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.