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Primeira Liga
Referee: Manuel Oliveira
Guimaraes
T T S T S
2–0
Full-time
Tondela
T S U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Guimaraes Tondela
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
50%
17%
Points per game
1,5
0,7
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 25%
33%
17%
Average goals
3,0
1,8
Scored
2,0
0,3
Conceded
1,0
1,5
Goal diff per game
+1,0
-1,2
This season — Primeira Liga · 23/24 matches
Win Ø 30%
35%
25%
Points per game
1,4
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 41%
39%
42%
Both score Ø 45%
52%
38%
Average goals
2,7
2,0
Scored
1,6
0,8
Conceded
1,1
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,5
-0,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

45% Possession 55%
12 Shots 9
5 Shots on target 2
2 Blocked shots 5
3 Goalkeeper saves 3
7 Corners 4
1 Offside 1
19 Free kicks against 16
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Guimaraes 8. · Tondela 15.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Porto 24 20 2 2 +40 62
2 Benfica 23 20 0 3 +39 60
3 Sp Braga 25 14 4 7 +14 46
4 Sp Lisbon 23 13 3 7 +13 42
5 Rio Ave 24 11 7 6 +10 40
6 Famalicao 23 10 6 7 -1 36
7 Gil Vicente 25 8 9 8 -3 33
8 Guimaraes 23 8 8 7 +12 32
9 Santa Clara 23 8 6 9 -5 30
10 Moreirense 24 6 10 8 +0 28
11 Boavista 24 7 7 10 -5 28
12 Setubal 23 6 9 8 -10 27
13 Vitoria Setubal 23 6 9 8 -10 27
14 Maritimo 24 5 10 9 -8 25
15 Tondela 24 6 7 11 -11 25
16 Belenenses 24 7 4 13 -20 25
17 Pacos Ferreira 24 6 4 14 -16 22
18 Portimonense 25 2 12 11 -16 18
19 Aves 24 4 1 19 -23 13

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,31
U
5,06
B
9,42
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,73
U2,5 ✓
2,07
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Manuel Oliveira · 149 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,0 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
27,7 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,32 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.