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Serie A

Referee: D Massa

Lecce

T S S S T

2–7

Full-time

Atalanta

T S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lecce Atalanta

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

3,5

3,7

Scored

1,7

2,5

Conceded

1,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+1,3

This season — Serie A · 25/24 matches

Win Ø 39%

24%

54%

Points per game

1,0

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 76%

68%

83%

Both score Ø 66%

60%

71%

Average goals

3,2

4,0

Scored

1,3

2,6

Conceded

2,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+1,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

34% Possession 66%

5 Shots 17

3 Shots on target 11

4 Blocked shots 7

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

2 Corners 11

1 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lecce 16. · Atalanta 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Lazio	26	19	5	2	+37	62
2	Juventus	25	19	3	3	+24	60
3	Inter	24	16	6	2	+27	54
4	Atalanta	24	13	6	5	+31	45
5	Roma	25	12	6	7	+15	42
6	Napoli	26	11	6	9	+5	39
7	Milan	25	10	6	9	-5	36
8	Verona	24	9	8	7	+4	35
9	Parma	24	10	5	9	+2	35
10	Bologna	26	9	7	10	-4	34
11	Cagliari	24	8	8	8	+2	32
12	Sassuolo	24	8	5	11	-1	29
13	Fiorentina	25	7	8	10	-4	29
14	Udinese	25	7	6	12	-16	27
15	Torino	25	8	3	14	-17	27
16	Lecce	25	6	7	12	-17	25
17	Sampdoria	24	6	5	13	-17	23
18	Genoa	25	5	7	13	-17	22
19	Brescia	25	4	4	17	-24	16
20	Spal	25	4	3	18	-25	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Lazio	14	11	3	0	+29	36
2	Juventus	12	11	1	0	+19	34
3	Inter	12	7	4	1	+13	25
4	Roma	13	6	3	4	+7	21
5	Verona	12	6	3	3	+5	21
6	Atalanta	12	6	2	4	+14	20
7	Parma	12	6	1	5	+6	19
8	Udinese	12	5	3	4	-2	18
9	Cagliari	12	5	2	5	+3	17
10	Napoli	13	5	2	6	-1	17
11	Milan	12	4	5	3	-1	17
12	Bologna	13	4	5	4	-2	17
13	Sassuolo	12	5	1	6	+3	16
14	Fiorentina	13	3	5	5	-4	14
15	Torino	12	4	2	6	-11	14
16	Genoa	12	4	1	7	-4	13
17	Sampdoria	13	3	4	6	-7	13
18	Lecce	12	2	5	5	-2	11
19	Spal	12	2	2	8	-9	8
20	Brescia	13	1	3	9	-12	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	12	9	2	1	+14	29
2	Lazio	12	8	2	2	+8	26
3	Juventus	13	8	2	3	+5	26
4	Atalanta	12	7	4	1	+17	25
5	Napoli	13	6	4	3	+6	22
6	Roma	12	6	3	3	+8	21
7	Milan	13	6	1	6	-4	19
8	Bologna	13	5	2	6	-2	17
9	Parma	12	4	4	4	-4	16
10	Fiorentina	12	4	3	5	+0	15
11	Cagliari	12	3	6	3	-1	15
12	Verona	12	3	5	4	-1	14
13	Lecce	13	4	2	7	-15	14
14	Sassuolo	12	3	4	5	-4	13
15	Torino	13	4	1	8	-6	13
16	Sampdoria	11	3	1	7	-10	10
17	Brescia	12	3	1	8	-12	10
18	Genoa	13	1	6	6	-13	9
19	Udinese	13	2	3	8	-14	9
20	Spal	13	2	1	10	-16	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.