Primeira Liga
Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Tondela
Guimaraes
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 1–2
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Porto
|
32 | 26 | 4 | 2 | +62 | 82 |
| 2 |
Benfica
|
32 | 24 | 5 | 3 | +57 | 77 |
| 3 |
Sp Lisbon
|
32 | 24 | 5 | 3 | +40 | 77 |
| 4 |
Sp Braga
|
33 | 24 | 3 | 6 | +46 | 75 |
| 5 |
Rio Ave
|
32 | 14 | 5 | 13 | -3 | 47 |
| 6 |
Maritimo
|
32 | 12 | 8 | 12 | -11 | 44 |
| 7 |
Boavista
|
33 | 12 | 6 | 15 | -10 | 42 |
| 8 |
Chaves
|
32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | -12 | 41 |
| 9 |
Guimaraes
|
32 | 12 | 4 | 16 | -13 | 40 |
| 10 |
Tondela
|
32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | -5 | 38 |
| 11 |
Belenenses
|
33 | 9 | 10 | 14 | -12 | 37 |
| 12 |
Portimonense
|
33 | 9 | 8 | 16 | -10 | 35 |
| 13 |
Moreirense
|
32 | 8 | 8 | 16 | -17 | 32 |
| 14 |
Aves
|
32 | 8 | 7 | 17 | -17 | 31 |
| 15 |
Feirense
|
32 | 9 | 3 | 20 | -15 | 30 |
| 16 |
Vitoria Setubal
|
32 | 6 | 11 | 15 | -23 | 29 |
| 17 |
Pacos Ferreira
|
32 | 7 | 8 | 17 | -24 | 29 |
| 18 |
Estoril
|
32 | 7 | 5 | 20 | -33 | 26 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Cláudio Ramos
G
Miguel Cardoso
M
Coach: Pepa
G. Konan
D
Raphinha
M
Coach: José Peseiro
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Benfica
Tondela
Tondela
Aves
Rio Ave
Tondela
Tondela
Portimonense
Boavista
Tondela
Helder Malheiro · 143 kamper i vår database
🟥 Red cards: 0,32 per match
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.