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Primeira Liga
Referee: Helder Malheiro
Tondela
U U U S S
1–4
Full-time
Guimaraes
T S U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Tondela Guimaraes
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
33%
50%
Points per game
1,5
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 67%
83%
50%
Average goals
3,2
2,3
Scored
1,8
1,3
Conceded
1,3
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+0,3
This season — Primeira Liga · 32/32 matches
Win Ø 35%
31%
38%
Points per game
1,2
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 55%
47%
63%
Both score Ø 53%
53%
53%
Average goals
2,7
3,0
Scored
1,3
1,3
Conceded
1,4
1,7
Goal diff per game
-0,2
-0,4
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

55% Possession 45%
12 Shots 14
3 Shots on target 6
1 Blocked shots 3
2 Goalkeeper saves 2
2 Corners 4
1 Offside 2
10 Free kicks against 13
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Tondela 10. · Guimaraes 9.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Porto 32 26 4 2 +62 82
2 Benfica 32 24 5 3 +57 77
3 Sp Lisbon 32 24 5 3 +40 77
4 Sp Braga 33 24 3 6 +46 75
5 Rio Ave 32 14 5 13 -3 47
6 Maritimo 32 12 8 12 -11 44
7 Boavista 33 12 6 15 -10 42
8 Chaves 32 11 8 13 -12 41
9 Guimaraes 32 12 4 16 -13 40
10 Tondela 32 10 8 14 -5 38
11 Belenenses 33 9 10 14 -12 37
12 Portimonense 33 9 8 16 -10 35
13 Moreirense 32 8 8 16 -17 32
14 Aves 32 8 7 17 -17 31
15 Feirense 32 9 3 20 -15 30
16 Vitoria Setubal 32 6 11 15 -23 29
17 Pacos Ferreira 32 7 8 17 -24 29
18 Estoril 32 7 5 20 -33 26

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Tondela Guimaraes
33′
Rafael Martins 0–1
39′
Rafael Martins 0–2
Mattheus
Half-time 1–2
1–2 J. Delgado
David Bruno
48′
50′
🟨 Pedrão
Ricardo Costa 🟨
56′
59′
P. Hurtado 1–3
66′
🔁 Rafael Miranda
↦ P. Hurtado
Harramiz 🔁
↦ Eli
68′
Joca 🔁
↦ J. Delgado
76′
78′
🔁 João Aurélio
↦ Héldon
85′
🟨 Falaye Sacko
Simão Pipo 🔁
↦ Pedro Nuno
87′
89′
🔁 O. Estupiñán
↦ Rafael Martins
89′
O. Estupiñán 1–4
Raphinha
Full-time 1–4

Line-ups

Tondela

4-4-2
1 Cláudio Ramos G
20 Ricardo Costa D
22 David Bruno D
23 Joãozinho D
44 Jorge Fernandes D
27 Bruno Monteiro M
7 Claude Gonçalves M
10 Pedro Nuno M
15 J. Delgado M
99 Eli F
11 Miguel Cardoso M
Bench (7)
25 Harramiz
17 Joca
60 Simão Pipo
2 F. Moufi
12 Ricardo Janota
55 Tomás Cardoso
8 Hélder Tavares

Coach: Pepa

Guimaraes

4-2-3-1
56 João Miguel G
2 Pedrão D
33 Jubal D
17 F. Sacko D
53 G. Konan D
16 P. Hurtado M
25 A. Wakaso M
21 Mattheus M
99 Rafael Martins F
10 Héldon M
11 Raphinha M
Bench (7)
5 Rafael Miranda
20 João Aurélio
26 O. Estupiñán
49 J. Tallo
1 Douglas Jesus
13 João Afonso
71 Sturgeon

Coach: José Peseiro

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Helder Malheiro · 143 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,3 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
31,3 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,32 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.