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Eredivisie

Referee: D Higler

Ajax

S S S S U

3–1

Full-time

Groningen

T S U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajax Groningen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

83%

50%

Points per game

2,7

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

3,3

1,3

Scored

2,5

1,0

Conceded

0,8

0,3

Goal diff per game

+1,7

+0,7

This season — Eredivisie · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 65%

78%

52%

Points per game

2,5

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

74%

39%

Both score Ø 48%

52%

43%

Average goals

4,0

2,2

Scored

3,2

1,3

Conceded

0,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

+2,4

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

57% Possession 43%

21 Shots 9

8 Shots on target 4

8 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 3

10 Free kicks against 8

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ajax 1. · Groningen 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	23	18	3	2	+55	57
2	PSV Eindhoven	24	15	6	3	+29	51
3	AZ Alkmaar	24	14	7	3	+21	49
4	Vitesse	24	14	3	7	+14	45
5	Feyenoord	23	13	5	5	+26	44
6	Groningen	23	12	5	6	+7	41
7	Twente	25	9	9	7	+7	36
8	Utrecht	22	9	8	5	+8	35
9	Heerenveen	25	8	9	8	+0	33
10	For Sittard	24	9	4	11	-7	31
11	Heracles	24	8	5	11	-11	29
12	Zwolle	24	5	11	8	-6	26
13	Sparta Rotterdam	23	6	5	12	-8	23
14	Waalwijk	25	5	8	12	-14	23
15	VVV Venlo	24	6	4	14	-29	22
16	Willem II	25	4	6	15	-27	18
17	Den Haag	25	2	9	14	-33	15
18	FC Emmen	25	2	7	16	-32	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	12	10	1	1	+20	31
2	Vitesse	12	9	2	1	+14	29
3	Ajax	11	9	1	1	+24	28
4	Groningen	13	7	4	2	+7	25
5	Feyenoord	10	7	2	1	+20	23
6	AZ Alkmaar	12	7	2	3	+8	23
7	Heerenveen	12	6	3	3	+8	21
8	Utrecht	12	5	5	2	+4	20
9	Heracles	12	5	2	5	+4	17
10	Zwolle	12	3	6	3	+1	15
11	Twente	13	3	5	5	-1	14
12	For Sittard	12	4	2	6	-4	14
13	Waalwijk	13	3	4	6	-4	13
14	VVV Venlo	11	3	3	5	-16	12
15	Willem II	12	3	2	7	-12	11
16	Sparta Rotterdam	12	2	3	7	-5	9
17	FC Emmen	13	1	4	8	-17	7
18	Den Haag	12	0	6	6	-12	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	12	9	2	1	+31	29
2	AZ Alkmaar	12	7	5	0	+13	26
3	Twente	12	6	4	2	+8	22
4	Feyenoord	13	6	3	4	+6	21
5	PSV Eindhoven	12	5	5	2	+9	20
6	For Sittard	12	5	2	5	-3	17
7	Vitesse	12	5	1	6	+0	16
8	Groningen	10	5	1	4	+0	16
9	Utrecht	10	4	3	3	+4	15
10	Sparta Rotterdam	11	4	2	5	-3	14
11	Heerenveen	13	2	6	5	-8	12
12	Heracles	12	3	3	6	-15	12
13	Zwolle	12	2	5	5	-7	11
14	Waalwijk	12	2	4	6	-10	10
15	VVV Venlo	13	3	1	9	-13	10
16	Den Haag	13	2	3	8	-21	9
17	Willem II	13	1	4	8	-15	7
18	FC Emmen	12	1	3	8	-15	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.