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Eredivisie
Referee: J Manschot
Ajax
S S S S S
4–2
Full-time

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajax Sparta Rotterdam
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
100%
17%
Points per game
3,0
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
67%
33%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
2,8
2,5
Scored
2,3
1,0
Conceded
0,5
1,5
Goal diff per game
+1,8
-0,5
This season — Eredivisie · 21/20 matches
Win Ø 56%
81%
30%
Points per game
2,5
1,1
Over 2.5 Ø 61%
76%
45%
Both score Ø 47%
48%
45%
Average goals
4,0
3,1
Scored
3,2
1,5
Conceded
0,7
1,7
Goal diff per game
+2,5
-0,2
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

65% Possession 35%
16 Shots 12
7 Shots on target 4
2 Blocked shots 3
2 Goalkeeper saves 3
3 Corners 3
6 Offside 1
4 Free kicks against 9
0 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Ajax 1. · Sparta Rotterdam 13.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Ajax 21 17 2 2 +53 53
2 PSV Eindhoven 23 15 5 3 +29 50
3 AZ Alkmaar 23 13 7 3 +19 46
4 Vitesse 23 13 3 7 +11 42
5 Feyenoord 20 12 4 4 +22 40
6 Groningen 21 11 4 6 +6 37
7 Twente 23 9 7 7 +7 34
8 Utrecht 20 8 8 4 +8 32
9 For Sittard 23 9 4 10 -6 31
10 Heerenveen 23 7 9 7 +0 30
11 Heracles 23 8 4 11 -11 28
12 Zwolle 23 4 11 8 -9 23
13 Sparta Rotterdam 20 6 4 10 -4 22
14 Waalwijk 23 5 7 11 -13 22
15 VVV Venlo 22 6 4 12 -20 22
16 Willem II 22 3 4 15 -29 13
17 Den Haag 22 2 7 13 -30 13
18 FC Emmen 23 1 6 16 -33 9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Ajax Sparta Rotterdam
1–0 S. Haller
D. Tadić
14′
Dušan Tadić ℹ️
VAR: Goal cancelled
25′
2–0 S. Haller
E. Álvarez
37′
Half-time 2–0
David Neres 🔁
↦ Antony
46′
46′
🔁 M. Engels
↦ B. Vriends
46′
🔁 S. Mijnans
↦ D. Duarte
46′
🔁 L. Duarte
↦ D. Abels
46′
🔁 D. Gravenberch
↦ B. Smeets
3–0 P. Schuurs
D. Tadić
49′
4–0 M. Kudus
D. Tadić
50′
53′
D. Gravenberch 4–1
L. Thy
55′
🟨 Michael Heylen
D. Klaassen 🔁
↦ M. Kudus
59′
O. Idrissi 🔁
↦ D. Tadić
60′
Z. Labyad 🔁
↦ E. Álvarez
75′
B. Brobbey 🔁
↦ S. Haller
75′
78′
🔁 W. Burger
↦ L. Thy
91′
D. Gravenberch 4–2
M. Engels
Full-time 4–2

Line-ups

Ajax

4-3-3
1 M. Stekelenburg G
17 D. Blind D
3 P. Schuurs D
4 E. Álvarez M
21 L. Martínez D
2 J. Timber D
8 R. Gravenberch M
20 M. Kudus M
10 D. Tadić F
22 S. Haller F
39 Antony F
Bench (11)
7 David Neres
6 D. Klaassen
9 O. Idrissi
19 Z. Labyad
30 B. Brobbey
5 S. Klaiber
16 K. Scherpen
23 L. Traoré
33 D. Kotarski
18 J. Ekkelenkamp
15 D. Rensch

Coach: E. ten Hag

Sparta Rotterdam

5-4-1
1 M. Okoye G
7 Jeffry Fortes M
3 B. Vriends D
4 T. Beugelsdijk D
5 M. Pinto D
6 M. Heylen D
2 D. Abels D
10 B. Smeets M
11 D. Duarte M
8 A. Harroui M
9 L. Thy F
Bench (11)
13 M. Engels
18 S. Mijnans
12 L. Duarte
14 D. Gravenberch
17 W. Burger
16 E. Emegha
15 J. Meerstadt
21 D. Vianello
30 M. Fabrie
20 B. van Leer
19 R. Kharchouch

Coach: H. Fraser

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,15
U
8,15
B
14,11
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,25
U2,5
3,82
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

J Manschot · 135 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,0 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
19,0 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,10 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.