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Primeira Liga
Referee: Tiago Martins
Benfica
S S S S S
3–0
Full-time
Gil Vicente
T S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Benfica Gil Vicente
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 84%
100%
67%
Points per game
3,0
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
83%
17%
Both score Ø 42%
50%
33%
Average goals
3,8
1,8
Scored
3,2
1,3
Conceded
0,7
0,5
Goal diff per game
+2,5
+0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Primeira Liga · 19/19 matches
Win Ø 56%
79%
32%
Points per game
2,5
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 53%
53%
53%
Both score Ø 53%
47%
58%
Average goals
2,8
3,2
Scored
2,2
1,6
Conceded
0,6
1,6
Goal diff per game
+1,5
-0,1
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

1,44 xG 0,19
53% Possession 47%
10 Shots 5
5 Shots on target 3
3 Blocked shots 0
3 Goalkeeper saves 4
6 Corners 4
0 Offside 1
11 Free kicks against 5
0 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Benfica 2. · Gil Vicente 9.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Sp Lisbon 19 16 1 2 +34 +25.2 49
2 Benfica 19 15 3 1 +29 +24.9 48
3 Porto 20 14 3 3 +20 +13.2 45
4 Guimaraes 20 12 3 5 +12 +5.6 39
5 Sp Braga 19 11 4 4 +16 +13.7 37
6 Moreirense 19 9 5 5 +2 -0.1 32
7 Arouca 20 7 4 9 +5 -0.8 25
8 Farense 20 7 4 9 +0 -5.4 25
9 Gil Vicente 19 6 4 9 -1 -6.2 22
10 Famalicao 19 5 7 7 -5 -5.1 22
11 Portimonense 20 6 3 11 -18 -11.9 21
12 Boavista 19 5 5 9 -10 -9.8 20
13 Casa Pia 19 5 4 10 -15 -8.2 19
14 Estoril 19 5 3 11 -2 -8.7 18
15 Rio Ave 20 3 9 8 -9 +0.7 18
16 Estrela 19 4 6 9 -12 -7.7 18
17 Chaves 20 3 5 12 -26 -12.2 14
18 Vizela 20 2 7 11 -20 -7.1 13

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Benfica Gil Vicente
1–0 Arthur Cabral
Á. Di María
15′
2–0 João Neves
N. Otamendi
34′
Half-time 3–0
3–0 Rafa
F. Aursnes
49′
58′
🔁 Alex Pinto
↦ Zé Carlos
59′
🔁 T. Touré
↦ Félix Correia
59′
🔁 A. Alipour
↦ Murilo
David Neres 🔁
↦ Rafa
67′
Álvaro Fernández 🔁
↦ Morato
67′
71′
🔁 Afonso Moreira
↦ M. Dominguez
74′
🟨 Jesús Castillo
Tiago Gouveia 🔁
↦ Á. Di María
78′
Marcos Leonardo 🔁
↦ Arthur Cabral
78′
81′
🔁 R. Wilson
↦ J. Castillo
B. Rollheiser 🔁
↦ João Neves
86′
Full-time 3–0

Line-ups

Benfica

4-2-3-1
1 A. Trubin G
6 A. Bah D
4 António Silva D
30 N. Otamendi D
5 Morato D
87 João Neves M
61 Florentino M
11 Á. Di María M
27 Rafa M
8 F. Aursnes M
9 Arthur Cabral F
Bench (9)
7 David Neres
3 Álvaro Fernández
47 Tiago Gouveia
36 Marcos Leonardo
32 B. Rollheiser
24 Samuel Soares
20 João Mário
44 Tomás Araújo
10 O. Kökçü

Coach: R. Schmidt

Gil Vicente

4-2-3-1
42 Andrew G
2 Zé Carlos D
13 Gabriel Pereira D
26 Rúben Fernandes D
23 Leonardo Buta D
24 M. Gbane M
6 J. Castillo M
8 M. Dominguez M
10 K. Fujimoto M
77 Murilo M
70 Félix Correia F
Bench (9)
67 Alex Pinto
7 T. Touré
9 A. Alipour
90 Afonso Moreira
14 R. Wilson
35 Felipe Silva
16 André Simões
33 S. Kritsyuk
88 Kazu

Coach: Vítor Campelos

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,15
U
7,88
B
16,22
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,42
U2,5
2,84
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Tiago Martins · 155 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,8 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
25,2 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,47 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.