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Champions League
Referee: S Vinčić
Monaco
T S U U T
1–0
Full-time
Aston Villa
U S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Monaco Aston Villa
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
17%
50%
Points per game
1,0
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
67%
83%
Both score Ø 75%
83%
67%
Average goals
3,3
3,0
Scored
1,7
1,5
Conceded
1,7
1,5
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+0,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
50%
67%
Points per game
1,7
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 58%
83%
33%
Both score Ø 42%
67%
17%
Average goals
3,7
2,0
Scored
2,0
1,5
Conceded
1,7
0,5
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,57 xG 0,97
39% Possession 61%
12 Shots 10
4 Shots on target 5
4 Blocked shots 1
5 Goalkeeper saves 3
4 Corners 7
4 Offside 2
14 Free kicks against 14
1 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Monaco Aston Villa
1–0 W. Singo ⚽
8′
Half-time 1–0
49′
🟨 Lucas Digne
57′
🔁 J. Durán
↦ L. Bailey
S. Magassa 🔁
↦ L. Camara
65′
A. Golovin 🔁
↦ E. Ben Seghir
66′
67′
🔁 I. Maatsen
↦ L. Digne
L. Michal 🔁
↦ T. Minamino
78′
J. Teze 🔁
↦ D. Zakaria
79′
82′
🟨 Morgan Rogers
86′
🔁 J. Ramsey
↦ M. Rogers
86′
🔁 L. Bogarde
↦ E. Buendía
Aleksandr Golovin 🟨
92′
92′
🟨 Boubacar Kamara
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Monaco

4-2-3-1
1 R. Majecki G
2 Vanderson D
17 W. Singo D
5 T. Kehrer D
13 C. Mawissa D
15 L. Camara M
6 D. Zakaria M
11 M. Akliouche M
18 T. Minamino M
7 E. Ben Seghir M
36 B. Embolo F
Bench (12)
88 S. Magassa
10 A. Golovin
41 L. Michal
4 J. Teze
12 Caio Henrique
50 Y. Lienard
42 S. Bouabré
22 M. Salisu
27 K. Diatta
37 E. Diop
16 P. Köhn
20 K. Ouattara

Coach: A. Hütter

Aston Villa

4-2-3-1
23 E. Martínez G
2 M. Cash D
4 E. Konsa D
5 T. Mings D
12 L. Digne D
44 B. Kamara M
8 Y. Tielemans M
31 L. Bailey M
27 M. Rogers M
10 E. Buendía M
11 O. Watkins F
Bench (9)
9 J. Durán
22 I. Maatsen
41 J. Ramsey
26 L. Bogarde
72 K. Young
20 K. Nedeljković
25 R. Olsen
50 S. Swinkels
18 J. Gauci

Coach: Unai Emery

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

S Vinčić · 42 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,2 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
25,2 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,17 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.