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La Liga

Referee: Mario Melero

Villarreal

T S U T T

2–0

Full-time

Vallecano

U T S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Villarreal Vallecano

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,7

1,8

Scored

1,0

1,2

Conceded

1,7

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,5

This season — La Liga · 15/16 matches

Win Ø 35%

20%

50%

Points per game

1,1

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

40%

56%

Both score Ø 49%

47%

50%

Average goals

2,2

2,5

Scored

1,1

1,5

Conceded

1,1

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

52% Possession 48%

13 Shots 19

5 Shots on target 7

3 Blocked shots 5

6 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 6

3 Offside 3

16 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Villarreal 14. · Vallecano 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	16	12	3	1	+22	39
2	Sevilla	16	10	4	2	+15	34
3	Betis	16	9	3	4	+8	30
4	Ath Madrid	15	8	5	2	+11	29
5	Sociedad	16	8	5	3	+6	29
6	Vallecano	16	8	3	5	+8	27
7	Valencia	17	6	7	4	+3	25
8	Barcelona	15	6	5	4	+6	23
9	Espanol	17	6	5	6	+1	23
10	Ath Bilbao	17	4	9	4	+1	21
11	Osasuna	16	5	6	5	-4	21
12	Mallorca	17	4	8	5	-7	20
13	Celta	17	4	5	8	-4	17
14	Villarreal	15	3	7	5	-1	16
15	Granada	15	3	6	6	-7	15
16	Elche	17	3	6	8	-8	15
17	Alaves	16	4	3	9	-9	15
18	Getafe	17	2	6	9	-9	12
19	Cadiz	16	2	6	8	-16	12
20	Levante	17	0	8	9	-16	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Vallecano	8	7	1	0	+14	22
2	Espanol	9	6	2	1	+7	20
3	Sevilla	7	6	1	0	+12	19
4	Real Madrid	7	5	2	0	+11	17
5	Barcelona	9	5	2	2	+7	17
6	Valencia	9	4	4	1	+6	16
7	Ath Madrid	8	4	3	1	+6	15
8	Sociedad	8	4	3	1	+2	15
9	Betis	8	4	2	2	+5	14
10	Mallorca	9	2	6	1	+1	12
11	Villarreal	7	3	2	2	+3	11
12	Ath Bilbao	8	3	2	3	+1	11
13	Elche	8	2	4	2	-1	10
14	Alaves	9	3	1	5	-5	10
15	Getafe	8	2	2	4	-1	8
16	Granada	7	2	2	3	-3	8
17	Osasuna	8	1	4	3	-6	7
18	Levante	8	0	6	2	-5	6
19	Celta	9	1	2	6	-6	5
20	Cadiz	8	0	4	4	-8	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	9	7	1	1	+11	22
2	Betis	8	5	1	2	+3	16
3	Sevilla	9	4	3	2	+3	15
4	Ath Madrid	7	4	2	1	+5	14
5	Sociedad	8	4	2	2	+4	14
6	Osasuna	8	4	2	2	+2	14
7	Celta	8	3	3	2	+2	12
8	Ath Bilbao	9	1	7	1	+0	10
9	Valencia	8	2	3	3	-3	9
10	Cadiz	8	2	2	4	-8	8
11	Mallorca	8	2	2	4	-8	8
12	Granada	8	1	4	3	-4	7
13	Barcelona	6	1	3	2	-1	6
14	Alaves	7	1	2	4	-4	5
15	Villarreal	8	0	5	3	-4	5
16	Vallecano	8	1	2	5	-6	5
17	Elche	9	1	2	6	-7	5
18	Getafe	9	0	4	5	-8	4
19	Espanol	8	0	3	5	-6	3
20	Levante	9	0	2	7	-11	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.