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Premier League

Referee: P Bankes

Leicester

U T S U T

4–0

Full-time

Newcastle

U U T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leicester Newcastle

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,3

2,7

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

2,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,7

This season — Premier League · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 20%

33%

Points per game

1,3

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

73%

47%

Both score Ø 73%

73%

Average goals

3,3

3,1

Scored

1,5

1,1

Conceded

1,8

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

47% Possession 53%

8 Shots 12

5 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 6

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 6

0 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 16

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Leicester 11. · Newcastle 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	16	12	2	2	+24	38
2	Liverpool	16	11	4	1	+33	37
3	Chelsea	16	11	3	2	+27	36
4	West Ham	15	8	3	4	+9	27
5	Man United	16	8	3	5	+2	27
6	Arsenal	16	8	2	6	-1	26
7	Tottenham	14	8	1	5	-1	25
8	Wolves	16	6	3	7	-2	21
9	Brentford	16	5	5	6	-1	20
10	Brighton	15	4	8	3	-2	20
11	Leicester	15	5	4	6	-4	19
12	Aston Villa	16	6	1	9	-4	19
13	Everton	15	5	3	7	-6	18
14	Crystal Palace	15	3	7	5	-2	16
15	Leeds	16	3	7	6	-8	16
16	Southampton	16	3	7	6	-10	16
17	Watford	16	4	1	11	-10	13
18	Burnley	14	1	7	6	-7	10
19	Newcastle	15	1	7	7	-13	10
20	Norwich	16	2	4	10	-24	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	8	6	1	1	+15	19
2	Arsenal	8	6	1	1	+9	19
3	Liverpool	8	5	3	0	+14	18
4	Tottenham	8	6	0	2	+3	18
5	Chelsea	8	5	2	1	+15	17
6	West Ham	8	4	2	2	+4	14
7	Aston Villa	8	4	1	3	+3	13
8	Man United	8	4	1	3	+1	13
9	Everton	8	4	1	3	+0	13
10	Southampton	8	2	5	1	+1	11
11	Crystal Palace	7	2	4	1	+4	10
12	Brentford	8	3	1	4	+0	10
13	Leicester	7	3	1	3	-1	10
14	Leeds	8	2	4	2	-2	10
15	Wolves	8	3	1	4	-2	10
16	Brighton	7	2	3	2	-2	9
17	Newcastle	8	1	4	3	-5	7
18	Watford	8	2	1	5	-7	7
19	Burnley	6	1	3	2	+0	6
20	Norwich	8	1	2	5	-7	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	8	6	1	1	+19	19
2	Chelsea	8	6	1	1	+12	19
3	Man City	8	6	1	1	+9	19
4	Man United	8	4	2	2	+1	14
5	West Ham	7	4	1	2	+5	13
6	Brighton	8	2	5	1	+0	11
7	Wolves	8	3	2	3	+0	11
8	Brentford	8	2	4	2	-1	10
9	Leicester	8	2	3	3	-3	9
10	Tottenham	6	2	1	3	-4	7
11	Arsenal	8	2	1	5	-10	7
12	Watford	8	2	0	6	-3	6
13	Crystal Palace	8	1	3	4	-6	6
14	Leeds	8	1	3	4	-6	6
15	Aston Villa	8	2	0	6	-7	6
16	Everton	7	1	2	4	-6	5
17	Southampton	8	1	2	5	-11	5
18	Norwich	8	1	2	5	-17	5
19	Burnley	8	0	4	4	-7	4
20	Newcastle	7	0	3	4	-8	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.